Republicans distance themselves from Trump ahead of midterm elections

President Donald Trump is asking Republicans to make November’s US midterm elections a referendum on him. A growing number of the party’s candidates appear intent on making their races about almost anything else.

With Trump’s approval rating at a record low and Democrats opening a sizable lead on the congressional ballot, Republicans in competitive contests are increasingly putting daylight between themselves and the president – on immigration, the Iran war and even in the branding of their campaigns.

A formerly loyal Florida representative last week released an ad warning Trump that his immigration crackdown had “gone too far” and that Hispanic voters “feel betrayed”.

In Iowa, a Senate candidate called for the Iran war to be brought to an “immediate end”, saying voters were being squeezed by higher prices, while two House members switched votes to support limits on Trump’s ability to continue military action.

Veteran political strategist Mike Fahey, who ran an independent presidential campaign in 2024, said the shifts were less about newfound ideological independence than “brand separation”.

“You’re seeing candidates create daylight on issues where the political pressure is greatest,” he told AFP. “The message isn’t necessarily ‘I’m against Trump. ‘It’s “I’m my own person.”‘

Political bill

A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Monday put Trump’s approval rating at a new low of 32%, while Democrats led Republicans by eight points among registered voters asked which party they would support for Congress.

Just 17% approved of Trump’s handling of the cost of living and 34% of his handling of the Iran war.

“The political bill is finally coming due,” said communications expert and former Washington lobbyist Kevin Mercuri.

He told AFP Republicans had assumed voters would tolerate almost anything associated with Trump, but that calculation was colliding with the Iran war, high fuel prices and a broader affordability squeeze.

Trump, meanwhile, has repeatedly urged supporters to behave as though his own name were on the November ballot.

“You have to pretend I am on the ticket,” he told the Republican midterm convention in Dallas earlier this month.

Yet several Republicans in difficult races stayed away from the gathering, including Maine Senator Susan Collins, while others have minimised their association with Trump online.

California Representative Young Kim stripped “America First” branding and references to Trump from her campaign website after the primary. Similar changes have been reported in other competitive Republican campaigns.

Fahey said candidates still wanted Trump’s political organisation and core supporters while needing to show independence to voters dissatisfied with his presidency.

“Whether it works will depend largely on whether voters see the separation as authentic or as an election-year manoeuvre,” he said.

Balancing act

The breaks remain selective rather than wholesale. Hinson’s campaign website, for example, still prominently features Trump’s endorsement.

The Republican National Committee told Politico candidates they should run the races they need to run and that Trump understood when they had to add “nuance” to policy positions to win.

But Trump has shown limits to his tolerance for dissent.

Responding to Salazar’s immigration ad, he said he still supported her but added that she had become “a little bit soft on the border.”

Daniel Drezner, professor of international politics at The Fletcher School at Tufts University, said Republicans did not want to be tied to Trump’s unfavourable ratings but warned that distancing themselves might not solve their problem.

Such efforts “might alienate the MAGA base but not attract independents who are furious” with the party’s policy miscues, he said.

For vulnerable Republicans, the strategy is less a wholesale repudiation of Trump than an attempt to persuade swing voters that they are their own political actors – without convincing Trump’s supporters that they have abandoned him.

“Voters mostly treat politics like plumbing. They just want it to work. If your sink leaks, you hire a plumber to fix it, not to argue with you about gaskets or break the garage,” said Peter Loge, director of George Washington University’s School of Media.

“Smart candidates are like good plumbers, they find and fix problems that matter.”

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