New Zealand election on knife edge as Greens surge to 16%, poll shows

New Zealand’s two largest parties lost support in a key opinion poll, leaving the election in less than six weeks finely balanced.

The governing National Party fell to 28%, which is its lowest level of support since 2021, according to the 1News Verian poll published late Monday. The main opposition Labour Party also dropped to 28% — its worst since early 2024.

The result heaps further pressure on Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, who is seeking a second term at the Nov. 7 vote but has been hampered by a sluggish economy and cost-of-living pressures that have hit household incomes. At the same time, Labour has failed to persuade people that it offers a compelling alternative, with support instead flowing to smaller parties.

New Zealand has a proportional representation electoral system, and the National Party governs in a coalition with the New Zealand First Party and the ACT Party. Backing for NZ First rose to 9% while ACT improved to 11%, the poll showed.

Still, that means the existing center-right coalition wouldn’t control a majority of parliament.

The big gainer in the poll was the Green Party, which surged 4 points to a record 16% support. That potentially gives the Labour-led bloc a pathway to power if it links with the Opportunity Party, which was at 6% in the poll.

Opportunity has never entered parliament, having failed to reach the 5% threshold at previous elections. However, several recent polls have put it above that level, raising the prospect that it may play a role in determining the next government.