Mexico’s inflation rate rises for third straight month, hitting 3.75%

Inflation is showing no sign of letting up and, led by green tomatoes, consumer prices rose more than expected in October, marking three consecutive months of increases.

According to data released on Monday by the national statistics agency INEGI, the annual inflation rate reached 3.75%, up from 3.57% in October 2025. 

October’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) exceeded the 23 estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists, which yielded a median prediction of 3.65% and was 0.65% more than the 3.45% recorded in September of this year.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, accelerated to 3.80% year-on-year and rose 0.34% month-on-month, while non-core inflation reached 3.59% year-on-year.

Within the core inflation index, goods increased by 0.22% and services by 0.44%.

On a monthly basis, the non-core price index rose 1.75%, with fruit and vegetable prices climbing 2.35%. Energy and government-regulated prices rose 2.13%, which was largely due to the end of the summer electricity tariff subsidy in 18 cities

The six products that increased the most were:

• Green tomatoes: 35.58%.
• Air transport: 26.36%.
• Pumpkins: 23.22%.
• Electricity: 18.51%.
• Professional services: 9.88%.
• Red tomatoes: 9.68%

The six products that decreased the most were:

• Limes: -16.53%.
• Serrano chilis: -8.98%.
• Oranges: -8.90.
• Avocados: -7.20%.
• Potatoes and other tubers: -6.29%.
• Bananas: -4.83%.

Just last week, the central bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 6.25%, a decision that reignited debate over whether policymakers are easing the economy too quickly before inflation has sustainably returned to the bank’s target of 3%.

The bank also revised its forward guidance, indicating that the new rate is likely to remain unchanged for an extended period. In a statement, it argued that keeping borrowing costs at current levels would help inflation converge toward the target, while acknowledging that risks to the outlook remain tilted to the upside.

And even as economic activity continues to rebound — GDP expanded by 3.2% year-on-year in the third quarter — the bank maintains that the economy is still operating below its potential, limiting demand-driven inflation.

However, if the economy demonstrates sustained growth, the bank’s position might be difficult to sustain.

With reports from El Financiero, El Economista and LopezDoriga.com