Signals from Nigeria’s side of Lake Chad, By Samuel Aruwan

On 7 November 2026, I listened with keen interest to the interview Alhaji Abubakar Gamandi, chairman of the Lake Chad Basin Fisheries Association of Nigeria, granted the BBC Hausa Service. As I translated it into English, I kept returning to his claim that armed groups now held six places on the Nigerian side of Lake Chad where troops had once been stationed. He spoke of fishermen who risk their lives to return to those waters because their families depend on what they catch. He also spoke of island communities where thousands of children have little opportunity to continue their education beyond primary school.

Speaking to Haruna Tangaza, he acknowledged the presence of the Nigerian Army, the Navy and troops of the Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) at Baga. He said the Navy operated from the old fishing dam and covered that part of the lake. He then recalled where Nigerian troops had once been stationed farther into the lake. “On the Nigerian side, you cannot go to a single island and find soldiers stationed there. Back when there was peace, we had military bases. There were soldiers at Duguri and at Madayi. There was also Kaukiri, close to where that recent attack took place. Kaukiri is within six kilometres of the site. It too was a military base when there was peace. There were soldiers at Dogon Ciku, an army unit at Mari, and soldiers stationed at Shuwaram. Those were all military posts. When there was peace, the soldiers controlled all of them. Today there is not a single one left. The places I have just listed are all in Boko Haram’s hands.”

Tangaza asked, “As of this year, 2026?” Gamandi replied, “Yes, as of today, as we speak.” In March 2024, the International Crisis Group reported that Boko Haram’s JAS faction had taken Duguri and Shuwaram during its fighting with the Islamic State West Africa Province. Who held all six places when Gamandi spoke in November 2026 is a question for the Nigerian authorities to examine. In my view, the test of an operation on the lake is whether the authorities can maintain enough security for residents to return and earn a living.

He said the forces had yet to secure even the mainland, let alone the lake’s interior. He distinguished the waters and islands from the wider Lake Chad area, which includes places such as Monguno. That distinction matters to a fisherman deciding whether to return. He needs to know if he can reach his landing site and fishing grounds safely. On the Chadian side, Gamandi named Litri, Kaiga, Gubuwa and Kangalan as places where troops were stationed. He said Chadian authorities still held some islands where fishermen and farmers could work in peace. Since his community was driven out around 2013, he said, Boko Haram’s presence between Nigerian and Chadian positions had kept the route from Baga towards Baga Salla, Gubuwa and Kangalan closed to authorised civilian travel.

On the Nigerien side, he recalled that fishermen returned after a joint operation drove out rebels. He called it Operation Mikiya and tentatively dated it to 2000 or 2001. He said Nigerien troops did not establish posts on the islands. He described the lake interior off Kwatan Barwa, Kwatan Lailaya and Kwatan Karanga as the headquarters of Bakura Abu Umaima’s group. He mentioned Cameroon’s sector in the joint force but gave less detail about its presence on the islands. The question for the four countries is how much of the lake and its approaches their forces can cover together.

Gamandi estimated that there were more than 200 islands, with about 120 commonly used across the four countries. Some supported settlements with wells, mosques and weekly markets. He said there had been no comprehensive population count. Knowing how many people live on the islands would help the authorities decide where schools, clinics and public water points are needed.

He traced his own Hausa community’s settlement on the lake to around 1905 and to journeys for the Hajj. He mentioned people from Kebbi, Sokoto, Zamfara and Katsina who already knew how to farm and fish. He described the Kanuri, whom he calls Bari-Bari, as indigenous to the area and recalled that Buduma communities in parts of Chad, Niger and Nigeria raised livestock and fished. He credited Hausa settlers with developing commercial fishing and cultivating larger farms. Among those fishing on the Chadian side, he named the Buduma, Shuwa Arabs and Zaghawa. On the Cameroonian side, he mentioned the Masa.

“Even in my own family today, there are Shuwa, Buduma and Bari-Bari relatives,” he said. “My own wife is Bari-Bari. We came together and became one extended family.” When trouble arose, he said, people could draw on relationships built over years of living and working together. A border closure can cut a fisherman off from a market and from family on the other side.

He said Chad had the largest share of the waters in use. He estimated that Nigerians accounted for about 80 per cent of fishermen on the Nigerien side, 60 per cent on the Cameroonian side and nearly 40 per cent on the Chadian side. That helps explain why restrictions in one part of the lake can affect families in another country.

“Sambisa may have the bigger name, but Lake Chad has a greater Boko Haram presence,” Gamandi said. He explained that people could catch fish for food and extract its oil for frying. He also spoke of animals that provide meat and fat, land that can yield a harvest in about three months, and drinking water within an hour’s walk. If his account is confirmed, fighters holding parts of the lake can obtain much of what they need where they are based, even when outside supplies are disrupted.

He described the terms under which people who still go to the islands are allowed to work. “There is no question of clashes now. Our people who are still there have to submit to them. If you do as they say, you can live there in peace. That means obeying their rules. You have to accept that they regard the place as part of their own territory. When you go in to fish, they tell you, ‘Stay away from that place. You can fish along this stretch. Anyone who crosses that boundary will be punished. Nobody is to bring us cigarettes, drugs or alcohol. Those things are forbidden in our territory. And if anyone wrongs another person and a complaint is brought to us, we will punish the offender according to what he did.’”

He also described how fighters restrict communication. “They hold the power and control everything. They tell you to leave your phone behind. They also tell you to keep news from town to yourself, including anything the soldiers have said, and to keep information about them from the soldiers. Those are the instructions they give you.” Restrictions on phones and contact with soldiers make it harder for residents to report threats.

Using data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project, the Africa Center for Strategic Studies reported 880 deaths from violence against civilians linked to militant groups in the Lake Chad Basin in the year ending 30 June 2025. That was a 32 per cent increase over the previous year and the highest figure since 2016. In its August 2026 update, the Center reported that overall fatalities linked to militant violence in the basin rose by 60 per cent to 6,643 in the 12 months to mid-2026. It attributed most of that increase to battle-related deaths.

Where people cannot safely reach the police or courts, fighters can take it upon themselves to hear complaints and impose punishments. Control over fishing grounds, farms and markets also gives them a means of extracting money. The authorities should establish whether and where fighters impose levies on fishermen, farmers, herders and traders. Where collections are confirmed, they should cut off the revenue while protecting the people being made to pay.

Gamandi said that when an island settlement on the Nigerian side grew, the Lawan with jurisdiction would come and appoint a Bulama. The Bulama then exercised authority on the island, including in places where government officials rarely went. Anyone responsible for restoring civilian administration needs to understand how residents organised their affairs and whom they trusted.

He described the shortage of public services along the Nigerian stretch from Gamboru to Malam Fatori in Abadam Local Government Area. His emphasis was on settlements beyond the mainland. “Take the whole Nigerian side, from Gamboru to Malam Fatori in Abadam Local Government Area. Four local government areas border those waters. On the islands themselves, once you leave the mainland, you will hardly find a properly equipped school where children can learn. There are thousands of children there, yet there is no adequate school provision. Nor would you find a properly equipped hospital where people could get treatment.”

He acknowledged that some facilities had come after residents began to complain. “But given the number of people, the few facilities are barely felt.” He illustrated the disparity with a comparison. “A settlement may be 500 years old, yet if you count everybody, children and adults, you may find fewer than 200 people. It will have a school, a secondary school and everything else. Then you go to where people actually live in their thousands because that is where they can earn a living, and you find they have nothing beyond a primary school.”

He also spoke of inadequate electricity and water supplies. Families who could afford to make their own arrangements dug wells or sank boreholes. He saw the shortage of schools on the islands as one of the factors that helped Boko Haram’s ideology gain a foothold. “There are very many people living there, from different ethnic groups, and they were given no schooling. Everyone was left to their own devices. So when that ideology was brought in, people simply accepted it.” Borno State and the relevant local governments should establish which schools and clinics are functioning, what services they provide and whether families can reach them safely.

Gamandi recalled taking a photograph and a map to President Muhammadu Buhari and asking him to remember earlier fighting with Chad. He said Buhari had addressed troops from a boat by the landing at Doron Baga and told them that their next day’s meal would be brought to Kilbuwa. Buhari, he said, directed him and others to meet officials of the Department of State Services. The fishermen offered their knowledge of the islands and waterways. “We knew the area,” he said. “Countless young men from our communities made their living from fishing there and were eager to see the place cleared.”

“We went in and carried out that operation in 2017, as I said. It lasted only two or three months. Yet from 2017 to this day, no one has managed to get back to the places we reached in those three months.” Official records and accounts from others who took part can help establish how far the operation went and what followed. Fishermen still have knowledge the authorities can draw on, including which settlements rely on particular landing sites and what happens to trade when a route closes. They should be able to share it without putting their families at risk.

He explained why fishermen continued to go back even after the authorities declared the waters a war zone. “Now, the only people who go to those islands are those prepared to risk their lives. Our people who still go there to fish do so without official permission. The authorities have declared it a war zone. But ordinary people have to go in and find food. The authorities tried to stop them and couldn’t. People cannot stay away.”

He spoke of killings among those who went back. In better times, he said, the money from a catch fed families, sent children to school and helped relatives. Traders and people who process fish also depend on what fishermen bring ashore. Where restrictions are necessary, the authorities should explain where people can lawfully fish, land and sell their catch, and what help is available while their usual fishing grounds remain closed. A man with a family to feed will weigh an instruction to stay away against what his family will eat that week.

Gamandi also warned that a transfer of water into the lake could displace people living on the islands. He recalled that water levels fell sharply between about 1985 and 2000, then rose with the return of rainfall. He said fish were more abundant than he could remember. He recalled attending a summit on bringing more water into the lake while the late president was still in office. He also said he had raised his concerns about a water transfer in a BBC radio interview. The State House records that Nigeria hosted an international conference in February 2018 at which a transfer of water from the Ubangi River to Lake Chad was among the proposals discussed.

“We have counted more than 120 islands,” he said. “If you bring in enough water to restore the lake to its former level, I reckon about 70 of those islands would be submerged. If the water rises to the level people are talking about, where will the people who live on those islands go?” That estimate should be examined against the proposed water levels and the location of inhabited settlements. Families who have already lost homes or livelihoods to the fighting deserve to know whether such a project could displace them again.

The Nigerian government should ensure that its intelligence agencies examine Gamandi’s account in collaboration with the security forces and the relevant authorities in Borno State. They should establish who controls the six places he named, where armed groups obtain food and revenue, which routes they and their enablers use, and where civilians can travel safely. The review should draw on military and intelligence records as well as accounts from residents, fishermen and traders. Its findings should specify what action is needed and which authorities should take it.

The efforts of the Nigerian security forces on Lake Chad deserve commendation. More is required to fill gaps in security coverage and maintain control of the areas troops secure. In May 2026, the African Union Peace and Security Councilexpressed concern about Niger’s suspension of participation in the Multinational Joint Task Force and urged it to resume full participation. In October, Nigeria’s Defence Headquarters convened a forum on strengthening the force. Those efforts should lead to arrangements that the countries can put into practice on the lake and along its borders.

Nigeria, Chad, Niger and Cameroon should set aside their political differences and deepen existing intelligence sharing and cooperation. A return to full participation by Niger would help the four countries coordinate operations across the islands, waterways and land approaches. They should jointly identify the crossings used by fighters and their suppliers and agree on how to cover them. I have argued before that relentless pressure in areas occupied by terrorist groups can weaken their ability to operate. If fighters can cross a border when pressure mounts, they have another chance to regroup, replenish supplies and prepare attacks.

The state must establish a lasting presence in areas where people have been left without policing and basic services. Where armed men decide who can fish, hear complaints and punish those who disobey them, they have room to extract money, recruit and consolidate their hold. Once troops secure an area, the police and civilian authorities need the staff and resources to stay, and residents must be able to reach them safely.

A fisherman should be able to set out, sell his catch and come home safely without seeking permission from armed men. If someone threatens him or demands money from him, he should have somewhere to report it. His children should have a school to attend and a chance to continue beyond primary school. That is what a lasting state presence should mean to the people of the lake. As Gamandi said, “There is enough water. All we need now is peace.”

Samuel Aruwan is a postgraduate student in the Department of Mass Communication at Ahmadu Bello University, Zaria.