Envoy prods US on stalled arms sale

FRIENDSHIP TEST: A failure to come to Taiwan’s aid in a crisis could represent a significant geopolitical gain for Beijing, a Bloomberg Economics analyst said

Taiwan’s representative to the US projected confidence that US President Donald Trump would ultimately approve additional weapons sales to Taiwan, which has been waiting for a US$14 billion arms package.

“Obviously the speed could be a little faster, but we hope the United States — the United States understands very well the threat that we are under and, I’m very sure, will be providing us with the necessary equipment,” Alexander Yui (俞大?) said on Bloomberg This Weekend.

Trump’s efforts to woo Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) have sowed uncertainty about the US’ commitment to Taiwan, raising the stakes for the arms sale. Air defenses make up a substantial share of the proposed package, people familiar with the matter have said.

Representative to the US Alexander Yui speaks during an interview with Bloomberg This Weekend that was aired on Sunday.

Photo: Screen grab from Bloomberg’s Web site

The US has been “very clear on the fact that there’s no change in US policy towards Taiwan,” Yui said.

The US has not “acquiesced or responded” to Xi’s call to explicitly oppose Taiwanese independence, which would go beyond the longstanding policy that Washington does not support independence, he said.

A senior Trump administration official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said Trump would make a determination on the arms package in a fairly short time, without elaborating on the timeline.

Trump, who downplayed the issue when he hosted Xi in Washington last month, has long said he would make the decision “soon.”

Trump has previously described arms sales to Taiwan as a “very good negotiating chip” in his dealings with Beijing, and has engaged on Taiwan with his Chinese counterpart in a manner that is at odds with longstanding US practice.

With Trump and Xi expected to meet two more times this year at international summits, Yui said the goal is “to make sure that Taiwan is not on the menu.”

Tension over Taiwan also played out as Chinese diplomats ensured at the last minute that the 1951 Treaty of San Francisco would not be displayed during the two leaders’ visit to the National Archives in Washington, a person familiar with the matter said.

China did not sign the treaty, which forced Japan to relinquish its claims to Taiwan without specifying which government would assume sovereignty over the island.

The episode, first reported by National Public Radio, underscored Beijing’s sensitivity over Taiwan, which China has threatened to take by force if necessary.

As US officials look to defuse concerns around support for Taipei, the senior administration official pointed to Trump’s approval of a record US$11 billion in arms sales to Taiwan in December last year.

US House of Representatives Speaker Mike Johnson last week cited Trump’s record on Taiwan, telling Fox Business that Taipei remains a “very important partner, friend and ally.”

The delay in the latest package’s approval was related to “everything that’s involved and going on in the Middle East,” Johnson said.

However, the uncertainty deepened this week after US Ambassador to China David Perdue said Trump had asked Xi whether he wanted to purchase US weapons. Trump disputed the account before musing that selling weapons to Beijing might be a good idea.

A US Department of State spokesperson said US law prohibits arms sales to China and there is no offer or plan to sell arms to China.

US support for Taiwan has long served as a measure of US credibility in Asia, where allies including Japan and South Korea rely on Washington’s security commitments.

A failure to come to Taiwan’s aid in a crisis could also represent a significant geopolitical gain for Beijing, Bloomberg Economics chief geoeconomics analyst Jennifer Welch said.

Taiwan produces most of the world’s leading-edge semiconductors, making it indispensable to the artificial intelligence boom and the billions of dollars US companies are investing in data centers and advanced computing.

“None of that happens without Taiwan and without the chips that Taiwan makes,” Welch said.

For Taiwan, the more immediate concern is whether Washington would continue providing the military equipment it needs to defend itself against any Chinese attack.

A bipartisan group of US senators urged Trump in May to formally notify Congress of the pending package. Separately, House Democrats called on the administration to reaffirm the longstanding “one China” policy, which recognizes Beijing as China’s sole legal government while acknowledging, without endorsing, its position that Taiwan is part of China.

Washington maintains unofficial relations with Taipei and provides defensive weapons, while intentionally leaving ambiguous whether US forces would intervene militarily in a conflict.

Brookings Institution analyst Ryan Hass, a former National Security Council official, said he expects additional arms sales during Trump’s presidency, potentially through smaller packages after the two leaders conclude reciprocal visits to the APEC summit in China next month and the Group of 20 meeting in Miami in December.

Even so, the delays and conflicting messages are having consequences.

“By introducing so much uncertainty about sort of the steadfastness of the United States,” Trump is “providing tailwind to China’s efforts to induce them to believe that they are isolated and alone in the world to contend with China,” Hass said.