1 war, 2 disease outbreaks, 1 oil crisis: 6 countries face higher risks, 3 see lower risks — Inside 2027 Global Risk Map

The ongoing conflict with the US and Israel, economic challenges, and arbitrary detentions have raised Iran’s risk rating from High to Extreme. 

The 2027 Global Risk Map by security services provider Global Guardian has identified rising security threats across several countries, with Iran moving from high to extreme risk amid its conflict with the US and Israel. The report also flags worsening risks in the Gulf, rising gang violence in Ecuador and deteriorating conditions in Cuba.

The map, last updated in September 2026, assesses security based on factors including crime, conflict, healthcare, natural disasters, infrastructure, political stability, civil unrest and terrorism. This year’s edition introduces multiple risk ratings within a single country to reflect differences between regions.

6 countries and regions move into higher risk categories

The report identifies the following changes in risk ratings:

1. Iran: High to Extreme Risk — The ongoing conflict with the US and Israel, economic challenges, and increased risk of arbitrary detention have raised the country’s risk rating.

2. Bahrain and Kuwait: Moderate to High Risk — Their vulnerability to Iranian strikes and concentration of US forces have increased security concerns.

3. Ecuador: Medium to High Risk — Escalating gang violence, disputes over cocaine trafficking, extortion and illegal mining have worsened security conditions. Gangs are increasingly using explosives, including car bombs.

4. Cuba: Moderate to Medium Risk — Nationwide blackouts, fuel shortages and sanctions have put additional pressure on the power grid and healthcare system.

5. Jordan, Qatar and the UAE: Moderate to Medium Risk — The 2026 Iran war exposed the vulnerability of US military installations and key economic sites in these countries to Iranian strikes.

6. Saudi Arabia: Moderate to Medium Risk — Attacks on oil and gas infrastructure, air bases and Saudi Aramco sites, alongside renewed risks linked to the Yemen conflict, have raised security concerns.

3 countries see risk ratings decline

The report also identifies three countries where security risks have eased:

- Jamaica: High to Medium Risk — The homicide rate fell by 40% between 2024 and 2025, with preliminary figures for 2026 indicating further crime reductions.

- South Korea: Moderate to Low Risk — Domestic political conditions have stabilised following a period of political volatility, alongside structural reforms.

- Hungary: Moderate to Low Risk — The report attributes the lower risk of civil unrest to the removal of former Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz Party after 16 years in power.

2026 events shaping the 2027 risk outlook

Global Guardian identifies several developments that could continue to influence security conditions in the coming year:

- 2 major health emergencies: Hantavirus and Ebola outbreaks placed pressure on public health systems and travel policies.

- 1 major energy disruption: The closure of the Strait of Hormuz caused what the report describes as the largest-ever disruption to the oil market.