Dubois vs. Wardley 2: What the stats tell us about the fight

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  Andres FerrariOct 15, 2026, 07:45 AM ET

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  Andres Ferrari is ESPN.com's boxing and MMA senior editor.

Daniel Dubois defends his WBO heavyweight title against Fabio Wardley on Saturday at the O2 Arena in London (DAZN, 2 p.m. ET). The fight is a rematch of Dubois' thrilling 11th-round TKO win in May, which is a contender for fight of the year.

Dubois (23-3, 22 KOs) was knocked down twice in their first fight, once in the opening round and again in the third. He recovered to outslug Wardley before stopping him late in the fight to become a two-time heavyweight champion.

Wardley (20-1-1, 19 KOs) entered that first fight with 19 victories by stoppage, a split draw against Frazer Clarke in 2024, and a points decision win in his first professional bout against Jakub Wojcik in 2017. His 95% knockout rate is a testament to his power.

"My body failed me, but not my heart," Wardley posted on social media after the fight. "And that I can live with."

Unlike in their first encounter, for which Dubois was a +100 underdog per DraftKings, he is a strong favorite to retain his belt in the rematch. Dubois, No. 3 in ESPN's heavyweight rankings, will need to avoid Wardley's right hand, which put him on the canvas early in their first fight.

Let's break down the heavyweight title fight by the numbers, using data from CompuBox.

Note: All odds per DraftKings.

-370: Odds for Dubois to win the rematch.

+10,000: Odds for Wardley to win the rematch in Round 12, the longest odds for any outcome in the fight.

+900: Odds for Dubois to win in Round 7 or 8, the shortest odds for any round-specific outcome in the fight.

2,580: Days between Wardley's only other fight to go the distance and his 12-round split draw against Frazer Clarke on March 31, 2024. Wardley won every round in a four-round decision victory over Jakub Wojcik in his pro debut on April 8, 2017, then recorded 16 consecutive stoppage wins before the draw.

8: Title fights for Dubois (6-2), including for interim belts, since June 2022. During that span, Wardley has had just three title fights (2-1).

5.5: Jabs landed per round by Dubois in the first fight. Only 19.4% of Dubois' landed punches were body shots, compared with 35.2% for Wardley. The CompuBox average for the heavyweight division is 28.8%.

42.2%: Percentage of power punches landed by Wardley's opponents (7.3 per round). Dubois' opponents, all champions or top contenders, landed just 31.5% of their power punches (5.7 per round).

6.1: Power punches landed per round by Wardley in his past six fights, well below the heavyweight division average of 9.5.

45.8%: Percentage of total punches landed by Dubois in his first fight against Wardley, who landed just 27.1%. Dubois outlanded Wardley in total punches (179-97), jabs (92-57) and power punches (87-40).

179: Total punches landed by Dubois in his first fight against Wardley, compared with 97 for Wardley.

12.1: Punches landed per round by Wardley on an average of 35.5 thrown (34.1%), compared with 13.8 landed per round by Dubois on 40 thrown (34.5%).

6: Knockdowns suffered by Dubois in his professional career. Wardley has never been knocked down as a professional. However, he suffered a TKO loss to Dubois despite being on his feet when referee Howard Foster stopped the fight.

3: Losses by Dubois. All three of those losses have come by stoppage. He suffered a 10th-round KO loss to Joe Joyce in 2020, a ninth-round KO loss to Oleksandr Usyk in 2023 and a fifth-round KO loss to Usyk in their 2025 rematch.

7: Rounds in which Dubois landed at least 15 punches in his first fight against Wardley, compared with just one round for Wardley.

44: Average number of total punches thrown per round in the heavyweight division. Dubois (40) and Wardley (35.5) are below average. However, both have higher accuracy rates than the division average of 32.3%, with Dubois landing 34.5% and Wardley 34.1%.