El Niño puts India on course for driest monsoon in 17 years; crop yields and food prices at risk

India is on course for its driest monsoon in 17 years, with rainfall 15% below normal so far. A strengthening El Nino is raising concerns over crop yields and food inflation, which hit 5.95% in August.

India is on course to record its driest monsoon in 17 years, with strengthening El Nino conditions curbing rainfall and raising concerns over crop yields and food-price pressures, Bloomberg reported.

Cumulative rainfall during the June-September monsoon season is currently 15% below the long-term average, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). If the deficit persists, the season would be the weakest since 2009, when rainfall was 18% below normal. The IMD had forecast a 10% shortfall for the season in May.

Rainfall deficit to remain in double digit

A potential tropical cyclone could develop in the Bay of Bengal in the final week of September and bring some relief to eastern and northeastern India, according to Christian Werner, managing director of Australia-based consultancy Global Weather Climate Analytics, Bloomberg reported.

However, Werner expects the storm to have little impact on the overall national rainfall deficit, which he estimates will remain between 13% and 16%.

Forecasts from academics and weather experts on Lancaster University's CRUCIAL prediction platform also point to a weak monsoon. The platform gives a 68% probability that the season will end with rainfall 10% to 20% below normal, according to its founder, planetary scientist Mark Roulston.

Why monsoon is critical for India

The monsoon is critical to India's agricultural economy, with hundreds of millions of farmers relying on seasonal rainfall to irrigate their fields. India is among the world's largest producers of rice, sugar and cotton, while the June-September monsoon accounts for most of the country's annual rainfall.

A prolonged rainfall deficit could affect both the current harvest and the following crop cycle, potentially adding to food-price pressures. Food inflation rose for a seventh consecutive month in August to 5.95%, its highest level this year, while rice, sugar cane and corn plantings are trailing last year's levels.

According to Yuvika Singhal, an economist at QuantEco, every 1 percentage-point shortfall in rainfall from normal levels typically pushes food inflation higher by about 25 basis points.

The government has already taken steps to strengthen supplies amid weaker rainfall and rising prices. These include allowing duty-free sugar imports and selling onions at subsidised prices in some states to contain food costs.

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HomeNewsIndia'Crops and food prices face heat': El Nino puts India on course for driest monsoon in 17 years