Agent's Take: Jayden Daniels, C.J. Stroud and other quarterbacks who are at a crossroads entering 2026 season

Offensive players, excluding quarterbacks, and defensive players to keep an eye on were covered earlier in the week. Now, the focus now turns to passers. 

Every season, a different set of players face a crossroads or have something to prove for a variety of reasons. The most common reasons are related to age, contract or salary cap concerns, injury, performance or off-the-field issues. Ten such quarterbacks to watch during the 2026 season are below. 

C.J. Stroud, Texans

A record 11 first-round picks have had contracts extended after playing three seasons in 2026. This dates to 2014 when the initial first-round draft class under the rookie wage scale implemented in 2011 became eligible to sign new deals. 

Stroud, who was 2023's second overall pick, seemed like a lock for an early contract extension after one of the greatest debut seasons for a quarterback when he was named 2023's NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. That was before Stroud's regression over the last two seasons culminating with a terrible closing statement in the playoffs. 

Stroud had the worst two-game stretch of his NFL career during the postseason. His four interceptions, all in the first half, against the New England Patriots in the divisional playoffs followed five fumbles (two were lost) in a wild card game win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Stroud connected on 51.9% of his passes for 462 yards with two touchdowns and five interceptions to post a 51.8 passer rating in the two playoff games.

Stroud's playoff woes haven't prevented the Texans from having negotiations about a new deal. The Texans have reportedly offered Stroud in the neighborhood of $50 million per year. The three-year, $165 million contract extension, averaging $55 million per year, Baker Mayfield just received from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers complicates matters.

Stroud has plenty of incentive to be patient. Provided he has a major bounce back from last season's playoffs, he could be in a position to reset the quarterback market next year, just like Texans teammates Will Anderson Jr. and Derek Stingley Jr. did for edge rushers and cornerbacks with their respective contract extensions.

Deshaun Watson, Browns

Watson has gotten a new lease on his football life, at least temporarily, thanks to first-year Browns head coach Todd Monken. He beat out 2025 fifth-round pick Shedeur Sanders for Cleveland's quarterback job.

Watson likely has a tenuous grip on the quarterback position. He has been a shadow of his former self ever since the Browns exchanged 2022, 2023 and 2024 first-round picks, a 2022 fourth-round pick, a 2023 third-round pick and a 2024 fourth-round pick with the Houston Texans for Watson and a 2024 sixth-round pick in March 2022. Watson led the NFL with 4,823 passing yards and set a Texans franchise record for touchdown passes (33) in 2020. To make matters worse, the Browns gave Watson a guaranteed five-year, $230 million deal in connection with the trade although he had four years worth $136 million remaining on his contract.

Watson recognizes he has an opportunity to showcase himself to the rest of league considering 2026 is the final year of a contract Browns owner Jimmy Haslam has called a huge mistake. Without marked improvement this season, the soon to be 31 year old's career will likely be in jeopardy given his extensive off the field baggage stemming from the sexual assault and misconduct allegations that led to an11 game suspension for violating the NFL's personal conduct policy.

Jayden Daniels, Commanders

Daniels arguably had the best rookie season ever for a quarterback in 2024. He established himself as one of the top dual-threat quarterbacks while guiding the Commanders to their first NFC Championship game appearance since the 1991 season after going 4-13 in 2023 prior to his arrival. The 2024 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year completed 69.0% of his passes for 3,568 yards with 25 touchdowns and nine interceptions to post a 100.1 passer rating. He added a rookie-record 891 yards on the ground and scored six times.

Daniels' 2025 season was derailed by injuries (pulled right hamstring, left knee sprain, dislocated left elbow). He only played seven games as the Commanders fell to 5-12. Daniels' slender build and running style have raised questions about his durability and career longevity.

Kyler Murray, Vikings

Murray quickly signed a one-year contract at his $1.3 million league-minimum salary after the Arizona Cardinals released him in March. Having $36.8 million of his 2026 salary fully guaranteed under his Cardinals contract allowed the Vikings to get Murray at such a bargain.

Murray was effectively benched for Jacoby Brissett, a journeyman backup quarterback, prior to going on injured reserve in Week 10 with the right foot sprain suffered five games into the 2025 season. Arizona's offense operated more efficiently last season with Brissett at the helm.

Murray won a preseason quarterback competition with 2024 10th overall pick J.J. McCarthy. The Vikings narrowly missed the playoffs last season with a 9-8 record despite subpar quarterback play from McCarthy. Murray will be sitting in the driver's seat if he proves to be a major upgrade over McCarthy because the contract he signed with the Vikings precludes him from being designated as a franchise or transition player next offseason.

Tua Tagovailoa, Falcons

As expected, Tagovailoa was expendable under the new Miami Dolphins regime of general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan and head coach Jeff Hafley. The Dolphins are contending with a total of $99.2 million in dead money, a salary cap charge for a player no longer on a team's roster, because of Tagovailoa's departure. The $99.2 million is a record for dead money relating to a single player contract. The $55.4 million in 2026, which includes $54 million in guaranteed money, is also a record for dead money relating to an individual player in one league year. The other $43.8 million is a 2027 salary cap charge for the Dolphins.

Tagovailoa signed a one-year deal with the Falcons right after his release for only his league-minimum $1.215 million salary because of the salary guarantee from his Dolphins deal. The Falcons were the last team to name a starting quarterback for this season despite Tagovailoa's main competition, Michael Penix Jr., spending the offseason and preseason recovering from the torn left ACL he suffered during the latter part of the 2025 season.

Tagovailoa, who will miss the season opener against the Steelers with an oblique injury, could have a short lease if he falters early on with Penix waiting in the wings. There is speculation that Tagovailoa could be released with a benching given Atlanta's minimal investment in him.

Jalen Hurts, Eagles

A rift between Hurts and A.J. Brown led to the three-time Pro Bowl wide receiver being traded to the Patriots in June. The move is supposed to be a case of addition by subtraction because Hurts no longer has to deal with Brown's constant frustration when he wasn't a focal point of Philadelphia's offense. It remains to be seen whether new additions Makai Lemon, a 2025 first-round pick, Dontayvion Wicks and Marquise Brown, with DeVonta Smith assuming the No. 1 wide receiver role, can fill the void created by Brown's departure.

Hurts has another new offensive coordinator in Sean Mannion, who is a first-time play caller. Mannion is Hurts' sixth offensive coordinator in his seven years with the Eagles.

A successful pairing with Mannion should position the Super Bowl LIX MVP for a new deal in 2027 when he has two years remaining on the five-year, $255 million extension he signed in 2023 that briefly made him the NFL's highest-paid player at $51 million per year. The Eagles are one of the league's more proactive teams in signing core players to contract extensions. Hurts struggling to adapt to Mannion's offensive system, requiring him to be under center more than ever before, will magnify that the only guaranteed money left on his contract after this year is $22.696 million on his 2027 base salary. 

Bryce Young, Panthers

Young has been trending in the right direction ever since he regained his starting job from Andy Dalton after getting benched early in the 2024 season. He had a career year in 2025 while guiding the Panthers to the NFC South title for the first time since 2015. Young completed 63.6% of his passes for 3,011 yards with 23 touchdowns to post an 87.8 passer rating, which were all career highs, last season. The Panthers were comfortable picking up Young's fully guaranteed fifth-year option for 2028 worth $25.904 million because of his steady improvement. If Young can continue his upward career trajectory, Mayfield's $55 million-per-year deal could be his salary floor.

Malik Willis, Dolphins

Willis played well in limited action after the Green Bay Packers acquired him from the Tennessee Titans in a 2024 preseason trade. He completed 78.7% of his passes (70 of 89 attempts) for 972 yards with six touchdowns and zero interceptions for a 134.6 passer rating in 11 games, which included three starts, during his two seasons with the Packers. 

The limited track record didn't stop the Dolphins from turning to Willis to replace Tagovailoa at quarterback. That's because the Dolphins' new regime were previously vice-president of player personnel and defensive coordinator with the Packers during Willis' stint in Green Bay. The Dolphins signed Willis to a three-year, $67.5 million, averaging $22.5 million per year, with $45 million fully guaranteed in March.

Willis will be operating with one hand tied behind his back this season because the Dolphins have a historic amount of dead money, which is in excess of $180 million, while undergoing a massive rebuilding project. The Dolphins have the worst odds to win Super Bowl LXI along with the Cardinals at 500-1, according to SportsLine and a projected four-win total. If Willis doesn't impress, the Dolphins will surely find his successor in a quarterback-heavy 2027 NFL Draft where he would be destined to become a highly paid backup at some point next season.

Geno Smith, Jets

Smith didn't resemble the player who was named 2022's NFL Comeback Player of the Year last season. He led the NFL with 19 interceptions. Smith's 84.7 passing rating was 30th in the NFL. His performance played a major role in the Las Vegas Raiders securing the first overall pick in the 2026 NFL Draft with 3-14 record, which was used to select Indiana University Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza.

Smith and a 2026 seventh-round pick were dealt to the New York Jets for a 2026 sixth-round pick in March. Scheduled to make $26.5 million in the first year of a two-year, $75 million extension (worth up to $84 million through incentives and salary escalators) signed in conjunction with his March 2025 trade to the Raiders from the Seattle Seahawks, Smith took a pay cut to $19.5 million and his 2027 contract year worth $39.5 million was deleted in the process.

Smith, who turns 36 in October, can't afford to have another season like 2025. If he does, his days as a starting quarterback will be numbered.

Michael Penix Jr., Falcons

Penix was inconsistent in his first season as a full-time starter before he tore his left ACL 10 games into the 2025 season. He completed 60.1% of his passes for 1,982 yards while throwing nine touchdowns and three interceptions for an 88.5 passer rating in the nine games he played before the knee injury. 

The Falcons' new regime of president of football Matt Ryan, general manager Ian Cunningham and head coach Kevin Stefanski aren't vested in Penix, who was 2024's eighth overall pick. That's why Tagovailoa was brought in as competition. Penix was at a disadvantage because he wasn't fully cleared to practice until the latter part of the preseason. Tagovailoa was so shaky in the preseason that it may just be a matter of time before Penix gets his shot, especially now that Tagovailoa is injured. If Penix doesn't capitalize when the opportunity presents itself, the Falcons will likely be looking in another direction at quarterback for 2027.