Five bold predictions for 2026 NBA Cup: A new champion, a record for futility, a surprising early exit
Who wins? Who fails spectacularly? And who will be the pleasant surprise of this year's NBA Cup, which tips off Friday night?
• 5 min read
The 2026 NBA Cup begins on Friday, Oct. 30, as the fourth season of the NBA's in-season competition tips off.
History was made last year when the New York Knicks became the first team to pull off the NBA double, winning the NBA Cup and the NBA championship in the same season -- beating the San Antonio Spurs in both finals. While some still fail to properly respect the Cup, teams are coming around to the idea that it is an early-season proving ground that can build confidence for postseason success.
The 2026 edition will be decided over the next six weeks, with four group-stage games determining the eight teams that reach the knockout rounds, leading to the championship at historic Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis on Dec. 11.
As a refresher, these are the teams that will battle for group stage supremacy over the next four weeks.
| East Group A | East Group B | East Group C | West Group A | West Group B | West Group C |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New York Knicks | San Antonio Spurs | ||||
Before we get into this year's NBA Cup action, we've got five bold predictions for this year's competition, including some surprising group winners, a pick for the champion and a team that could set a new record for futility.
1. The Knicks won't make it out of the group stage
It took longer than it should have, but the Knicks finally put an NBA Cup banner in the Madison Square Garden rafters. That initial Cup disrespect from James Dolan will have its consequences in 2026.
New York drew a brutal spot in East Group B that includes the 76ers, Cavaliers, Heat and Pacers, and the Knicks are going to continue the streak of defending Cup champs failing to get out of the group stage the following year. The Lakers and Bucks both failed to advance out of the group while defending their Cup crown, and the Knicks will make it three straight years of Cup champs missing out on the knockout stage.
2. The Trail Blazers win West Group C
The Spurs are the favorites and the Lakers are a threat, but I think this Blazers team is built for the Cup. An early-season competition is ideal for a Portland team that's still healthy and flying high right now with its star backcourt duo of Damian Lillard and Ja Morant.
I have some questions about the Blazers over the long haul, but right now, they're in a flow state on offense. Lillard has already lifted the Cup once in Milwaukee and will be hungry to help lead his young Blazers teammates to that same glory. They might fall short of that ultimate goal, but I think they can shock Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs in the group and reach the knockouts, where Dame Time gives them a puncher's chance in any matchup.
3. The Kings set a record for negative point differential
The Kings have already lost games by 25 and 27 points in four games this season and we have not even reached the portion of the calendar where teams are incentivized to run up the score. The Kings play in West Group C with the Spurs, Lakers, Blazers and Warriors, and each of those teams will see their matchup with Sacramento as an opportunity to get some much-needed point differential help.
The current record for worst point differential in four group stage games belongs to the 2025 Jazz, who finished with an astonishing -85 differential despite winning a game. That might be my favorite NBA Cup fact, but Utah's reign as the worst-performing NBA Cup team -- narrowly beating out the 2024 Wizards (-74) and 2025 Wizards (-77) -- will be short-lived. That's because this Kings team could be on the wrong end of some truly horrible beatdowns in another long season for the Sacramento faithful.
4. The Pistons and Celtics decide the East finalist
The East will not be decided by the most-discussed teams this summer, but instead the Celtics and Pistons. Boston has a friendly path in East Group C and Detroit's group looks much more manageable with injuries to Paolo Banchero and Kawhi Leonard limiting their top competition.
Both the Pistons and Celtics are off to terrific starts to their seasons and the continuity they have compared to a lot of other East contenders still figuring things out with some new-look squads will help them here. Those two teams will end up battling it out in the semifinals for the right to face the team I think lifts the Cup from the West.
5. The Rockets raise a Cup banner in the Toyota Center
Your 2026 NBA Cup champions will be the Houston Rockets. This is a team on a mission early in the season and even with Alperen Sengun missing a little time to start the group stage with a back injury, they've got a pretty friendly path to the knockout rounds in West Group A (Denver, Phoenix, Dallas and Utah).
Fred VanVleet's return to the lineup has moved everyone back into their ideal roles in Houston, and suddenly the offense runs much more smoothly in the half-court -- which was their downfall last postseason. They've got great defenders, shooters, athletes and Kevin Durant remains one of the NBA's biggest individual mismatches on offense.
Houston also fits the bill for teams that have performed well in the NBA Cup. Almost all past Cup finalists have been teams trying to prove they can win at a high level beyond just regular-season ball. The Lakers, Pacers, Bucks, Thunder, Spurs and Knicks all had something to prove -- either due to falling short of expectations in recent postseasons or trying to show they were ahead of schedule.
Houston is in that same spot after a first-round exit last season, and looks like a team extremely focused on proving it is being slept on in a Western Conference that suddenly looks much more open than initially thought.
The Rockets can use the Cup as a proving ground for this roster in higher-stakes scenarios and should be locked in on that opportunity.
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