News24 | Inflation: Time to beef it up as some meat prices drop, but airfares rise sharply

Mealie meal and mince has become cheaper than a year ago. People planning holidays might take note of a surge in airfares and bus tickets, though.

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Inflation has increased marginally in September, to 4.5% – up from 4.4% in August and 4.3% in July – landing somewhat lower than the Reuters consensus among analysts of 4.7%.

Month-on-month, prices increased 0.4%.

September is the seventh month in which inflation surpassed the SA Reserve Bank’s 3% target, and the fifth month above the tolerance band of up to 4%. The surge in inflation, a global phenomenon, is widely attributed to fuel supply shocks caused by the US-Iran war that has been ongoing since 28 February.

The changes in the inflation rate, showing how it compares to the SA Reserve Bank's target (in grey).

Statistics SA

Transport costs surge

Following the R1.34 per litre increase in 95-octane fuel and up to R3.15 per litre in diesel prices in September, the main contributors to the 4.5% annual inflation rate were transport inflation of 10.8%, contributing 1.5 percentage points.

Transport inflation includes the price of vehicles and public transport, but, says Statistics SA: “The rise in fuel prices is currently a key driver of transport inflation. The fuel price index jumped by 6.2% between August and September and by 27.9% over the past 12 months. Diesel is significantly more expensive than a year ago, at 46%. Petrol prices rose by 25% over the same period.

“The higher fuel prices have had a knock-on effect on passenger transport and courier services. The annual rate for passenger transport has occupied double-digit territory since June, rising to 12.3% in September from 11.6% in August. Sharp annual increases were recorded for airfares (18.6%), long-distance bus fares (14.1%) and minibus taxi fares (13.8%). The rate for courier services rose to 6.8% in September.”

Housing and utilities (5.2%, contributing 1.3 percentage points) and insurance and financial services (5.4%, contributing 0.6 of a percentage point) – were the other factors driving inflation upwards. Housing inflation is driven predominantly by massive year-on-year increases in water (7.4%) and electricity (7.9%) tariffs.

In a possible sign that fuel price increases are broadening to all consumer goods, goods inflation surged from 3.3% in August to 4.1%, while services inflation dropped slightly, from 5.1% to 4.9%.

However, core inflation – excluding fuel, food and electricity costs – was slightly down for another month, reaching 4%, from 4.2% in July and 4.1% in August.

This puts core inflation on the outer edge of the Reserve Bank’s tolerance of one percentage point above or below its official 3% target.

Provincially, Limpopo’s rate dropped to the target, while Western Cape inflation remains the highest in the country at 5.5%. Only in the Western Cape does the rate exceed 5%, with the next highest province, the Eastern Cape, at 4.7%.

Slight increase in food price inflation

Food price inflation increased ever so slightly, from 1.1% in August to 1.2% in September, after clocking a 16-year low of 0.9% in July.

Cereal products (including bread, pasta, rice and mealie meal) recorded their eighth month in deflation, being on average 1.9% cheaper than last year. Maize meal was 8.6% cheaper than a year ago.

Meat price inflation is the lowest in 18 months, while cereals were on average cheaper year-on-year for the eighth consecutive month.

Statistics SA

Average meat price inflation is only 0.7%. According to Statistics SA, this puts meat inflation at an 18-month low, since it clocked 0.4% in March 2025.

“Beef products are cheaper than a year ago, with price decreases recorded for stewing beef (-7.2%), beef mince (-4.6%), beef steak (-4.4%) and beef offal (-0.4%).”

Beef prices were increasing by up to 30% last year, as a result of the foot-and-mouth disease outbreak that is still affecting farmers.

Not all meats were cheaper, however: corned meat was 10.7% more expensive than a year ago, bacon 10.1%, and ham 8.1%. Fish prices were also up, on average by 8%.

While the price of fish and oninons surged, maize meal, rice, beans and other products were significantly cheaper than a year ago.