Texas' CFP path becomes precarious after Florida upset leaves Longhorns no room for error

Where the Longhorns go from here, and how Florida can climb back into the playoff race

Oct 17, 2026 at 3:36 pm ET • 3 min read

Arch Manning struggled, Steve Sarkisian ran out of answers, and the Longhorns lost their top defensive player to injury in the second half.

No. 7 Texas had an opportunity to steady its season against skidding Florida, but instead the Longhorns made their College Football Playoff math considerably uncomfortable following a 27-24 upset loss to the Gators.

This feels like a critical turn in the wrong direction for Sarkisian this season, after defending his quarterback following last week's loss to Oklahoma and now must live with another disheartening result for a team that was ranked No. 1 in college football earlier this month.

Texas led 17-3 in the second quarter before the Gators ran off 24 consecutive points to lead 27-17 prior to a late rally from the Longhorns. Manning's only touchdown pass, a 9-yard strike to Cam Coleman with 4:21 left, pulled Texas within three points at 27-24.

However, after the Longhorns retained possession following a Florida punt with 2:32 left, Manning was sacked and lost a fumble on second down.

Entering Week 7, the Longhorns were slotted in the College Football Playoff in our bowl projections at CBS Sports under the assumption that at least one more loss was coming for Texas this season.

Now? Florida has played its way back into the discussion, while the Longhorns have left themselves very little margin for error the rest of the way and may take the field without their top defensive player, Colin Simmons, moving forward.

After beating nationally ranked Ohio State and Tennessee in September, Texas has lost consecutive games to unranked teams, falling from No. 1 in the AP poll to likely outside the top 10 in Sunday's updated rankings. Over the next four games, the Longhorns play Ole Miss, Mississippi State, at Missouri and at LSU -- all teams currently ranked inside the top 25.

Manning's two interceptions in the fourth quarter of last week's loss to Oklahoma cost the Longhorns, and now, a critical fumble ended his streak of 11 wins as a starter at home for Texas.

The opportunity for quality wins remains for Texas, and that matters. However, banking on a turnaround requires believing this team can suddenly deliver the consistency it has struggled to find the last few weeks with a signal caller who's not playing with confidence as a passer.

Florida's path to CFP

Behind quarterback Tramell Jones, who started for the injured Aaron Philo, the Gators (5-2, 3-2) head into their open date with extra time to prepare for their battle with top-ranked Georgia inside Atlanta's Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Oct. 31. 

A win over the Bulldogs almost certainly pushes Florida back inside the top 15 ahead of the CFP Selection Committee's first set of rankings in November.

From there, Jon Sumrall's team plays Oklahoma, at Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Florida State with a clear path to 10 wins.

Sumrall said entering Saturday's game at Texas that it was vital for his team to flush their last two outings and focus on the task at hand from here -- beating the Longhorns and getting back on track this fall.

"We have not responded well, and there is something to that," Sumrall said. "There is a belief, a confidence, an intestinal fortitude of  'I'm going to fight till the finish, don't even care about what the scoreboard says, and then we'll look at the end of the game and see what the scoreboard says,' and so that is a concern of mine. 

"It is something I saw and felt the last two games that we've got to get corrected."

The Gators responded with their second win of the season over a top-10 opponent after previously crushing Ole Miss in Gainesville.