Namibia FMD outbreak: What it could mean for South African beef prices

South African beef prices could come under pressure if Namibia’s foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak continues to disrupt the flow of cattle into the country’s feedlots.

As reported by Sunday World, Namibia is a vital source of live cattle for South Africa, supplying approximately 81% of the country’s total cattle imports in 2024.

Much of this trade involves weaners destined for local feedlots, where the animals are grown before entering the beef supply chain.

The FMD outbreak was confirmed in September after 10 of 11 cattle samples from a commercial farm in Namibia’s Karasburg State Veterinary District tested positive.

The area is within Namibia’s World Organisation for Animal Health-recognised FMD-free zone.

Why South African beef prices could be affected

Namibia initially suspended the movement, marketing, import and export of cloven-hoofed animals and their raw products nationwide as authorities worked to contain the outbreak.

Those measures created concerns for South African feedlots that rely on Namibian cattle to supplement domestic supplies.

If the flow of Namibian weaners remains disrupted for an extended period, South African feedlots could face increased competition for locally available cattle.

That could raise procurement costs and potentially feed through to producer, wholesale and retail beef prices.

However, an immediate surge in prices is not guaranteed.

South Africa has a sizeable domestic cattle industry and existing feedlot inventories, which could help cushion the initial impact of the disruption.

Namibia restrictions have been partially eased

Namibia has since partially lifted some of the restrictions after intensified surveillance and livestock tracing indicated that the outbreak remains localised in the Kharas Region.

Livestock traced from the infected farm to Otjozondjupa before the outbreak was detected also tested negative for FMD.

However, livestock auctions and exports remain on hold, meaning uncertainty continues for the regional cattle trade.

When could Namibia’s FMD impact reach consumers?

The duration of the restrictions will be critical.

A short disruption could have a limited effect as South African feedlots draw on existing cattle supplies.

A prolonged interruption, however, could tighten the availability of animals entering feedlots and increase costs further down the value chain.

The impact would therefore depend on how quickly Namibia contains the outbreak and restores normal livestock trade.

For South African consumers, the key issue is not simply how much beef Namibia exports directly to the country.

It is the role Namibian cattle play before the beef reaches supermarket shelves.

South Africa imported more than 717 000 cattle in 2024, with Namibia accounting for about 81% of those imports.

This means any prolonged disruption to the live-cattle trade could become more significant for South Africa’s beef market over the coming months.