There’s been buzz around Carney for a prize long coveted by Trump

Mark Carney built a global profile in 2026 by standing up to US President Donald Trump. If some prediction-market traders and prominent admirers are right, the Canadian prime minister could end the year with the Nobel Peace Prize and Time magazine’s Person of the Year.

Carney briefly became the favourite Monday for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize on Kalshi, a US-based prediction market, when traders on the exchange put his chances at 14 per cent. His odds later fell, illustrating the highly speculative nature of the wagering.

There is no public evidence Carney is on the Nobel Committee’s secret shortlist for the prize that will be announced October 9 in Oslo, Norway.

But the buzz about the Canadian leader possibly winning the esteemed peace prize reflects the message that has raised his profile: Middle powers should band together to defend sovereignty as great powers increasingly use economic and military leverage.