Can frustrated voters today propel One Nation into WA's parliament?
One Nation's growing support will be put to the test today, as Pauline Hanson's party goes head to head with Labor in a Western Australian by-election.
The poll in Secret Harbour, a beachside suburb south of Perth, will provide the clearest indication yet of any shift in the political landscape and if One Nation can turn frustration at major parties into seats in Parliament.
Who are the main candidates?
Georgia Tree
Labor
Ryan Robertson
Liberal
Luke Herdegen
One Nation
Rhi Davies
Greens
Craig Buchanan
Legalise Cannabis
Why is this important?
Analysis by WA state political reporter Keane Bourke
On paper, this by-election shouldn't be very interesting. It's choosing who will replace a retiring Labor veteran in an area the party has held for decades.
The difference this time is One Nation. Support for the party has been surging in the east, at least according to polling, and to a lesser extent here in the west.
If that's going to translate to a win anywhere in WA, Secret Harbour would be close to the top of the list.
It takes in Perth's outer southern suburbs, with a growing population of young families moving into new housing developments.
Cost of living and housing have been key concerns which many voters would be feeling acutely.
Labor, who won the seat with a margin of 11.5 per cent at the last election, is also putting a strong emphasis on fighting One Nation, who are their real opponents here.
People often vote differently in by-elections which won't change the government, compared to general elections.
But this poll is still being watched nationally as a sign of how much of a threat One Nation can pose to Labor, and how both it, and the Liberals, will need to shape their campaigns to account for it.
What do locals think?
The hairdresser has long been a place to shoot the breeze, so it's no surprise that politics was the main topic of conversation at Emma Pender's salon ahead of the by-election.
Both Emma Pender (left) and her client Emma Chellew don't plan on voting Labor today. (ABC News: Lucy Murray)
When the ABC visited the Golden Bay hairdressers, many clients voiced their frustration with Labor, which held the seat for almost two decades.
"I did vote for Labor in the past, but I feel really let down by them. I hope they change and start to listen to the community a bit more," Fabian Portese said.
Mr Portese always voted Labor but this time he's undecided. (ABC News: Lucy Murray )
Mr Portese has yet to make up his mind about who to vote for today, but for Ms Pender the choice is clear.
"I put Ryan [Liberal candidate] number one. That was purely because he was local," the hairdresser said.
The Liberal candidate for the Secret Harbour by-election, Ryan Robertson, is a Royal Australian Navy veteran. (ABC News: Keane Bourke)
"He is listening to people and he is already aware a lot of the problems."
Further along the coast, in Port Kennedy, long-time Labor voter Elaine Soltluisch is heading in a different direction.
"I used to be Labor, but I am just tired of it now. This area, down south, we don't get the attention," she told the ABC while watching her grandkids at the skate park.
Elaine Soltluisch says she's voting One Nation. (ABC News: Lucy Murray)
"I have been here 30 years and never saw any change … it's too late.
"I'll vote for One Nation. I am tired of watching people go homeless. Labor is not for the general public, I don't think they're helping anyone."
Labor has held the seat for almost 20 years, but the retirement of veteran MP Paul Papalia and growing frustration with the major parties has given One Nation an opening.
It remains to be seen whether Pauline Hanson's party can get enough votes to turn this into its first ever lower house seat in Western Australia.
Where does the protest vote go?
Professor John Phillimore, director of the John Curtin Institute for Public Policy, said this by-election was a critical test for One Nation, leading into the state election in Victoria.
Professor John Phillimore says the nation's eyes will be on the by-election. (ABC News: Lucy Murray )
"From a Labor point of view, if the outer suburbs of Perth start falling to One Nation, that might ring some alarm bells in Victoria," he said.
"For the Liberals, it is a big issue for them, these outer suburban areas are traditional swinging seat territory where if a government is going to fall, the opposition picks up those seats."
Luke Herdegen is representing One Nation in the election. (ABC News: Keane Bourke)
"In Victoria, is the opposition picking up those seats going to be the Liberal Party or One Nation?"
The Secret Harbour poll is the first time this year Senator Hanson's party has gone up against an incumbent Labor government.
The Australian Labor Party did not run a candidate in the Farrer by-election in New South Wales, which gave One Nation its first lower house seat in federal parliament.
One Nation candidate David Farley (left) and party leader Pauline Hanson celebrate victory in the Farrer by-election. (AAP: Bianca de Marchi)
In South Australia, two of the four seats One Nation won in a March election were taken directly from the Liberals, the others from Independents.
"There does seem to be momentum behind One Nation, so this will be a test of that momentum," Dr Phillimore said.
Whether this momentum can propel the so-called 'orange wave' to claim another seat, this time in Labor heartland, remains to be seen.
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