GPS, GRS unlikely to pull support for Madani govt, say analysts

Gabungan Parti Sarawak (GPS) and Gabungan Rakyat Sabah (GRS) have little incentive in withdrawing support for the federal government, as both states continue to benefit from Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim’s administration.

Last week, analyst and former politician Ong Kian Ming suggested that GPS, led by Abang Johari Openg, and GRS, helmed by Hajiji Noor, might be more open to supporting Barisan Nasional and withdrawing support for the government after the 2027 budget is tabled on Oct 9.

James Chin of the University of Tasmania told FMT that both blocs were unlikely to agree to unseat the government with only a year or so remaining in the parliamentary term.

He said this was because Anwar had provided significant federal allocations for both states, and has committed to resolving key issues under the Malaysia Agreement 1963 (MA63).

“They are not going to cut him (Anwar) down as long as he plays ball with them. The only thing they want is 35% of (parliamentary) seats, but they know they cannot get it because there’s no time left in the current Parliament’s term,” he told FMT.

“Anwar has promised them that he will increase the number of seats and resolve some of the major MA63 issues.

“So, unless BN can give Sabah and Sarawak a better deal, and I doubt it very much, they won’t agree (to help bring down the government).”

Jayum Jawan of the Academy of Sciences Malaysia concurred, saying it was unlikely the two blocs would switch alliances or pull their support for Anwar’s government.

However, he said, both blocs, especially GPS, were known to change political partners whenever it suited them.

He cited the GPS-led Sarawak government’s cooperation with the Pakatan Harapan administration in 2018, followed by its support for subsequent governments led by Perikatan Nasional and BN.

“Sabah or Sarawak cannot afford to be on the opposing side of the ruling government at the federal level, because it’s practical politics. (Otherwise,) they will lose the anchor (in Putrajaya) which they also depend on for political legitimacy in their respective states,” he said.

Singapore Institute of International Affairs senior fellow Oh Ei Sun said GPS, as an offshoot of BN, could work well with the Umno-led coalition.

He said this was evident after the 2022 general election, when GPS, having initially backed PN’s bid to form the government, withdrew its support and joined BN in aligning with PH to establish the unity government.

“GRS is more of a fence-sitter as they will see which side is more conducive for them to work with in terms of gaining federal projects (for Sabah),” he said.

Oh said Anwar’s administration was working to meet the demands of the Borneo states, which explained his frequent trips to Sabah and Sarawak.

Chin acknowledged discontent in Sabah over what he described as Putrajaya’s slow progress in honouring the state’s entitlement to 40% of net federal revenue collected there, as well as its move to seek a stay of execution on a High Court order concerning the revenue.

However, he said, this was not enough to persuade GRS to back BN in withdrawing support for the unity government.

Jayum said the purportedly slow pace in honouring Sabah’s entitlement could nevertheless be used by both GRS and GPS to gain public sympathy and support while pressuring the federal government to accede to their MA63-related demands.

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