DAN HODGES: A return of two-party politics... thanks to Greens turning toxic and a Reform party that has imploded

Two-party politics is back. Even just a few months ago that would have been a ludicrous statement to make. 

On March 23, Reform stood on top of the polls, with 25 per cent. Second were Zack Polanski's surging Greens on 18 per cent. Below them both were the Tories and Labour, scraping around in the political basement on 17 per cent.

But as the 2026 party conference season draws to a close, the natural political order is slowly but surely being restored.

It's a process that began in Birmingham at the start of September. Reform's annual gathering was billed as the opportunity for a political reset after a summer dominated by allegations of sleaze and Nigel Farage's farcical battle with Count Binface in the Clacton by-election.

Instead it imploded, as an undercover investigation by Channel 4 appeared to show two senior Farage aides soliciting money from an overseas donor, in breach of party financing rules.

A similar fate befell the Greens a few weeks later. Their own conference was initially supposed to provide the springboard for victory in the upcoming Holborn and St Pancras by-election. 

It ended with Polanski running away from Brighton as his party became engulfed by anti-Semitism, with a declaration Zionism was racism and the rejection of a motion aimed at protecting Jews in their places of worship.

A few days later they were roundly rejected by the voters of north London.

But while politically catastrophic, these conference collapses merely highlighted the major strategic problems undermining both organisations.

For Polanski it framed how his party is now Green in name only. Infiltrated by an influx of radical Corbynites, it has turned its back on its environmental heritage and adopted the worst excesses of the radicalised Left.

Reform UK leader Nigel Farage during his visit to Hyndburn in Lancashire on October 8, as part of Reform UK's 100 Days to Save Britain tour

Green Party leader Zack Polanski reacts on the day of the results in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election on October 9

Reform have become comparably toxified. This should have been the year they moved beyond being plucky insurgents and became a serious alternative party of government. 

Instead they have abandoned any pretence they once had of winning the next election and have marched off into their own ideological cul-de-sac, embracing virulent ethno-nationalism in an increasingly desperate attempt to drag voters back from Rupert Lowe's splinter group Restore.

The impact on both parties has been charted in the polls. Reform's eight-point lead over Labour has become a four-point deficit. 

The Greens have plummeted to fourth place, neck-and-neck with Ed Davey's Liberal Democrats, who are themselves flatlining. 

Yet this conference season hasn't simply seen the restoration of the old British political duopoly by default.

Yes, Andy Burnham and Kemi Badenoch have been presented with an opportunity by their faltering opponents. But they have seized it with both hands.

When Burnham arrived in Liverpool, the perception of the Prime Minister was of an amiable communicator more at home producing TikTok videos than addressing the great issues of state. 

When he left he had set out a radical socialist vision that presages a dramatic transformation of pension provision, social care and the nation's electoral system.

Badenoch's job in Birmingham was seemingly to build on her well-received conference speech last year. But she surpassed it.

Concerns about the definition and direction of her party were firmly laid to rest as she articulated her competing and compelling vision for the country, one rooted in traditional Conservative values. 

And in a passage that matched any of the great conference oratory of the post-war era, she made a passionate, patriotic defence of her heritage and of multi-racial Britain.

It's true that political gravity will not completely reassert itself overnight. The Greens are still polling in double figures. Reform still sit just above the Tories. But the influence of both is set to fade.

Polanski is facing intense questioning over his future following his humiliation in Holborn. 

But even if he somehow clings on, his focus will solely be on trying to hold together a party falling apart before his eyes as the old Greens and Corbynite interlopers embark on a viscous internal civil war.

Within Reform there is renewed speculation about the future of their leader. Zia Yusuf is widely perceived to have embarked on a campaign to replace Farage, complete with a slick leadership video, increasingly open attacks on his former Tory colleagues (he means you, Robert Jenrick) and progressively inflammatory rhetoric aimed at appealing to his party's base.

Meanwhile, the political agenda is set to move away from the small boats crisis as the autumn and winter weather suppresses arrivals.

Simultaneously, the Budget will see the focus turn to the economy, an area where Reform have little to say and have zero credibility with the electorate.

In contrast, both Burnham and Badenoch exit conference season with their personal standing within their parties significantly enhanced.

Burnham has stolen Angela Rayner's mantle as conscience of the Left. Which will be important as we enter the new year and he prepares for a snap election that will inevitably mean losses among his MPs.

Badenoch's authority has also been immeasurably bolstered. Speaking to shadow ministers at the Tory conference, a number were privately acknowledging it was asking too much to expect them to return to government in a single bound. 

Instead they are now planning what one called 'the two-stage strategy'.

'The first part is to ensure we emerge from the election as the main party of opposition,' they explained. 'Then, when we've seen off Reform and Farage walks away, we can start to move in on Burnham.'

Significantly, all agreed Badenoch would lead them through both stages of that process. 'Kemi's safe, even if we lose the election,' one told me.

'If we finish, as I expect, well ahead of Reform then she won't be seen as a loser. She'll be seen as the person who saved the Conservative Party.'

The return of the old order will still present significant challenges.

Labour are going to have to find a way of aligning Burnham's desire to again make his party the tribune of the British working class, with people's festering fury over illegal immigration, fashionable wokeism and self-serving 'progressive' radicalism.

At the same time Badenoch is going to need to find a way of demonstrating that Margaret Thatcher's 80s radicalism retains relevance to a country fast approaching the third decade of the 21st century.

But those are problems for another day. Two-party politics is back. And given the current toxicity infecting the Greens and Reform, that is not such a bad thing.