Very strong El Niño now present in tropical Pacific, says PAGASA

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A very strong El Niño is now observed in the tropical Pacific, PAGASA on Wednesday said.

The El Niño phenomenon from the latter part of 2026 to the first half of 2027 is expected to be record-breaking in terms of heat, with temperatures across the Philippines expected to rise by 2C.

“As of today, a very strong El Niño is now present in the tropical Pacific, as of today, based on the pre-assessment of global prediction centers as well,” PAGASA Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section Chief Ana Liza Solis she said during the House Committee on Agriculture and Food hearing.

“Most climate models predict that the ongoing El Niño will persist until the first quarter of 2027, with its peak expected before the end of 2026. And its associated impacts may continue through the first half of 2027,” she added.

According to PAGASA’s climate outlook, the prolonged dry spell will lead to drought, and there will be warmer surface temperatures nationwide.

However, PAGASA said tropical cyclones and heavy rainfall may still occur.

Per the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) 356,800 Filipinos have already been affected by the El Niño in October.

Meanwhile, according to a September 2027 report by US-based Climate Impact Lab, half a million people around the world are at risk of heat-related deaths because of the phenomenon. In the Philippines, there could be more or less 6,500 heat-related deaths until February 2027.

As the Department of Environment and Natural Resources prepares water structures, rainwater harvesting systems for El Niño, the Department of Agriculture said agri damage due to El Niño has already topped P8.57B in October. — LA, GMA News