In Nandigram, BJP has clear edge. But will arrest of Congress candidate backfire?

With the release of Congress candidate Milan Pradhan on interim bail, over charges stemming from a 2007 case, the Nandigram Assembly seat by-election has finally stirred into motion.

There are several reasons why the bypoll matters – and not just because Nandigram has been the epicentre of the Trinamool Congress-BJP confrontation in West Bengal. For Chief Minister Suvendu Adhikari, who vacated his long-time seat, necessitating the bypoll, it is a prestige fight. His decision to field the mother of his murdered close aide has made the fight even more personal.

On the other side, the police action against the Congress’s Pradhan on old charges is being seen as a proof of BJP high-handedness; and the decision of Mamata’s candidate to drop out at the last moment as another evidence of it. With Mamata deciding to back Pradhan, the bypoll is also a test of whether the on-again, off-again Congress-TMC partnership convinces any voters.

Emerging from Haldia jail after 12 days on Wednesday, Pradhan told reporters: “Why is Suvendu Adhikari so afraid? He always calls Nandigram the place where he became a leader. Then why has he given the ticket to an outsider?”

Pradhan underlined that he was a part of the same Nandigram land movement headed by Mamata that propelled Adhikari to the top (Adhikari was in the TMC at the time). “I was arrested recently in connection with the same incidents in which Adhikari also played a part… Is that why he is afraid?”

Emerging from Haldia jail after 12 days on Wednesday, Pradhan told reporters: “Why is Suvendu Adhikari so afraid? He always calls Nandigram the place where he became a leader. Then why has he given the ticket to an outsider?”

The 58-year-old’s presence, accompanied by top state Congress leaders, is expected to breathe life into the party’s campaign, which has entered into the final four days. Even as the BJP electoral machinery is at work across the constituency, with Adhikari and its candidate Hasirani Rath’s posters all over, the few Congress flags and posters of Pradhan are concentrated in Sonachura, where his ancestral home is located. Significantly, there are no Mamata posters at all.

While the Congress’s organisational weakness compared to the BJP is not a surprise, Mamata’s TMC is hobbled by the absence of her local lieutenants such as Abu Taher and Sheikh Sufian. While Taher is now with the rebel TMC faction, the Democratic Trinamool Congress, Sufian is “absconding”. Another leader who has made himself scarce is Pabitra Kar, BJP leader-turned-TMC’s Nandigram candidate in the 2026 Assembly elections, who lost to Adhikari.

“Mamata said she will support the Congress candidate but, on the ground, there is no one,” rues a senior Congress leader, hoping that things will change come voting day. “We expect Mamata’s support base to vote for us. They are not coming out of home right now because of fear of the BJP.”

Congress candidate Milan Pradhan with party state president Subhankar Sarkar

On Wednesday, Congress West Bengal chief Suvankar Sarkar and its general secretary Subhashish Bhattacharya, among others, were present to welcome Pradhan as he emerged from jail. As he headed home to meet his parents, a huge convoy accompanied Pradhan, while supporters lined the roads.

Overwhelmed, Pradhan said: “This support shows how angry people are with the BJP… If a free and fair election is held, the party will not be able to retain this seat… We will create a wave for the Congress.”

BJP candidate Hasirani, who had a headstart in campaigning due to Pradhan’s absence, has been visiting every corner of Nandigram, doing road shows and making the rounds of temples.

Adhikari, who accompanied Hasirani as she filed her nomination, has urged voters across communities to back her, calling the bypoll a “test” for the minorities and an opportunity for them to decide whether they “want to be with the state government”.

Hansi Rani Rath , BJP candidate

In her campaign, Hasirani constantly invokes Adhikari. “This is Adhikari’s bhumi (land). No one here is above him… People have also seen his work as CM,” Hasirani tells voters after a visit to a temple in Amratala, adding that she will win by a margin of at least one lakh votes.

On the Opposition’s claims of repression, she says: “Everyone has the right to campaign. The BJP has no connection to Pradhan’s arrest.”

Seeing the crowd of women who have stopped to hear her, Hasirani becomes emotional. “I may win the election, may become an MLA, but I will never forget the death of my son. Only those who are mothers know what I have lost. That space will never be filled.”

Her son and Adhikari’s high-profile aide, Chandranath Rath, was killed in a roadside shooting two days after the Assembly election results. There is still no clarity on the motive. However, barring a few mentions, the killing is not an issue in the bypoll.

While the contentious Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral roll is back in the news, particularly in the context of West Bengal – the Supreme Court recently declined an urgent hearing on voters regarding these two bypoll seats – voters say it is not an issue.

BJP candidate Hasirani, who had a headstart in campaigning due to Pradhan’s absence, has been visiting every corner of Nandigram, doing road shows and making the rounds of temples.

One of those waiting to greet Hasirani is Munshi Mondol, who says the BJP will win by an even greater margin than earlier this year. “Nandigram is a fortress of Suvendu. There is no trace of opposition here. You go to any corner, you will only see BJP flags,” he says.

In the 2026 Assembly elections, Adhikari got a little over 50% of the votes and won by a margin of 9,600-plus. The TMC, the runner-up, got over 47% votes. The Left vote share was 1.19%, and the Congress’s a measly 0.32%.

However, what may be worrying for the BJP is that not all its supporters are as sure as Mondol, and a big reason for that is the arrest of Pradhan.

A senior BJP leader mentions Adhikari’s win just months earlier and the withdrawal of the Mamata-led TMC’s candidate, and adds: “This contest would have been a cakewalk for the BJP… Although Pradhan was an active part of the 2007 land movement, he was not a prominent leader. But, his arrest changed everything. We fear that a section of the people may vote for Pradhan because of his arrest.”

The candidate of the rebel TMC, Ehteshmul Haque, is hardly visible on the ground. A senior leader of the party admits: “Haque is staying at a hotel in Haldia, just an hour away. But so far he has come for only two days of campaigning.”

For Chief Minister Suvendu Adhikari, who vacated his long-time seat, necessitating the bypoll, it is a prestige fight. His decision to field the mother of his murdered close aide has made the fight even more personal.

Madan Mitra, a former state minister who is now with the rebel TMC, brushes aside talk of losing. “We have a huge support base and big leaders in Nandigram. They will vote for us.”

Also in the fray is the CPI’s Shantigopal Giri, the Left Front candidate. In some areas of Sonachura and Bhangabera, the Left – which has been wiped out in Nandigram since the 2007 land movement – is putting up a valiant fight.

There are several reasons why the bypoll matters – and not just because Nandigram has been the epicentre of the Trinamool Congress-BJP confrontation in West Bengal.

CPI(M) East Midnapore district secretariat member Himangshu Das says it is the Left that has borne the brunt of political violence in Bengal. “Milan Pradhan has gained prominence due to his arrest, which was dangerous for democracy… (But) Our candidate was also beaten up by BJP goons. They ransacked our party offices. We are used to such terror because we saw the TMC’s terror for 15 years,” says Das.

Claiming that the BJP is nervous, Das adds: “The TMC tried to wipe out the CPI(M)-CPI in Nandigram. But now, it is they who are finished. It is we who are fighting against the BJP.”