Will Brinson's NFL Week 1 predictions and picks: Best bets, player props, anytime touchdown scorers

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Backing home underdogs like the Colts and Texans offers strong Week 1 value, while Jalen Hurts and the Eagles are primed to cover against the Commanders

Sep 11, 2026 at 12:33 pm ET • 8 min read

Week 1 of the NFL season is underway and while the first two games of the season may have underwhelmed a touch, there's nothing quite like that first Sunday slate of games hitting your retinas with an octobox, the rush of Fantasy leagues truly beginning and touchdowns flying all over the place. Bet on the NFL and more at DraftKings, where new users get $200 in bonuses:

The first week of the season is always tricky for NFL betting because we're often trying to confirm our priors with bets and there will certainly be surprises along the way. But we've got several good spots to target this weekend, from against the spread bets (we're staying away from totals mostly in Week 1) to player prop betting and, of course, anytime touchdown scorers. 

Let's find some winners! 

Best bets for NFL Week 1

Cardinals +9.5 vs. Chargers

Maybe I'm the sucker here, but the market keeps saying I'm not: I loved this during the offseason when it was mid-teens and still like the Cardinals getting anything north of nine points in this game. Yes, the Chargers are better. No, they are not this much better and it's why the line has kept drifting down all offseason, finally getting under double digits heading into Week 1. Personally, I think the Cardinals are kind of live to win this game outright. Jacoby Brissett isn't an elite quarterback, but he's got plenty of experience and has a trio of good pass catchers at his disposal with Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Michael Wilson. Even if Jeremiyah Love isn't able to go -- and I think he will -- he'll be splitting carries with Tyler Allegier, a capable back in his own right. Defensively, I don't have a ton of hope for the Cards this season, but we might get some adjustment from the Chargers on that side of the ball as well, presenting an opportunity for Arizona to put up points and keep this within a touchdown... or better. 

Colts +3.5 vs. Ravens

This line is just simply inflated based on preseason expectations. The Colts' collapse last year has them out of mind, while the Ravens' snazzy new coaching staff has Vegas giving them a robust 11.5-win total. That also seems high, but this line in particular isn't doing a good enough job baking in the possibility of Jesse Minter and Declan Doyle adjusting to their roles for the first time. We might be toast if Daniel Jones looks really limited from a mobility standpoint, but I don't think the Colts roll him out if he's not ready. I also have concerns about the interior of the Ravens offenisve line and the Colts with DeForest Buckner can really exploit that. It's Week 1 and I'm more than willing to take a home dog, especially one that was really dangerous out of the gate last year and looks relatively healthy. 

Texans +1.5 vs. Bills

No one should be excited about fading the Bills, but like the Ravens, Buffalo isn't exactly a bastion of continuity. Yes, Joe Brady remains and just got a promotion. But we should have lots of questions about the Bills on defense in a post-Sean McDermott world. The Texans improved their offensive line, C.J. Stroud's in the second year of this system and they upgraded at running back with David Montgomery. Defensively there are zero questions about Houston, which profiles as arguably the best defense in football this year. I'm not really that into the whole "House of Horrors" thing in Houston with Josh Allen -- I just think the Texans are a very difficult defense to play against. And if they're catching points at home to start the year, I'm very interested. 

Buccaneers +3.5 vs. Bengals

It's looking like this line is trying to go the other way and I'm really surprised, frankly. The Buccaneers are an underrated team heading into 2026 and while the Bengals should be quite good, I'm not sure there are loads of difference between the two. Baker Mayfield was very much in the MVP race until midseason injuries to both him and everyone around him derailed the season. He's been talking this offseason like he has something to prove and when Baker has a chip on his shoulder he's incredibly dangerous. Emeka Ebugka is full go for this week (more on him below) and the rest of Baker's weapons look ready to roll. I think Cincy will be able to score on Tampa Bay, but I'm really confident Baker puts up points.

Eagles -5.5 vs. Commanders

As we've discussed on our Early Edge picks shows (subscribe to SportsLine's YouTube channel for all the best content), the Eagles are pretty underrated in the market ahead of the year. Philadelphia lost A.J. Brown and, maybe more importantly, offensive line coach Jeff Stoutland. Those are big losses, but it doesn't mean the Eagles are a bad football team. They will almost certainly have a top-10 defense and it could challenge for best in the league. Jalen Hurts is being treated like someone fighting for his job and not someone who won a Super Bowl two years ago. The change at OC probably guarantees a more efficient run game and there's enough weapons for this team to dominate a banged-up Commanders team that's been struggling in the offseason. 

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Week 1 NFL player props

Michael Mayer Over 38.5 receiving yards

If you have lightning fingers, you probably added Michael Mayer in your Fantasy leagues and snapped up his props right when the Brock Bowers news was announced. But there's still a little meat on the bone here, because there's just not a lot of weapons on the Raiders for Kirk Cousins to throw to. Mayer averages 49 yards per game without Bowers in the lineup and his only competition for targets are Tre Tucker, Ashton Jeanty and Jalen Nailor. Cousins has always been TE-friendly (just look at what he did for Kyle Pitts to close last year) and Mayer should be able to clear 40 yards against a bad Dolphins defense. This number is still climbing and is higher elsewhere in the market. I would take it up to 41.5 personally. 

Emeka Egbuka Over 52.5 receiving yards

I'm genuinely shocked by how kind this line is, as well as how low people were on Emeka Egbuka heading into 2026. Before a Week 6 hamstring issue, Egbuka averaged five catches, 90 yards and a touchdown per game -- which included a rough Week 2 effort against the Texans elite defense. Now he's the featured wideout for a dangerous passing attack against what is a slightly-but-not-drastically improved Bengals defense. This game has a 50-point total and Egbuka practiced in full on Wednesday.

Drake London Under 5.5 receptions

The Falcons quarterback situation is deteriorating rapidly and it's very possible we end up with Cooper Rush or Jack Strand starting this game. If that's the case, I think Kevin Stefanski will keep it reeeeeeeal vanilla and use Bijan Robinson and Brian Robinson to pound the ball and melt the clock, hoping to minimize exposure. That's bad news for Drake London's targets total.

Colston Loveland Over 4.5 receptions

Everyone is focused on Luther Burden this offseason and I don't blame them: he could have a monster year. But I think Loveland picks up right where he left off at the end of last season and is one of the top targets for Caleb Williams. 

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Anytime touchdown scorer props for Week 1

Just as a quick kind of heads up to how I approach these props: I'll generally dabble in some longshots, but this week there are some studs and superstars being a little forgotten at their prices so I'm jumping all over those props.

Saquon Barkley

He could get snaked by Hurts (not bad value at +110), but I think Saquon Barkley will rip one off against a division opponent in what he hopes will be a bounceback year. And you don't have to lay that much juice for it. We could also theoretically see a little less Tush Push by the goal line with new OC Sean Mannion. 

CeeDee Lamb

CeeDee Lamb averages better than 80 yards per game against the Giants for his career (pretty good in a 12-game sample) and has scored a total of five times in those games. We're expecting a shootout, Dak Prescott is fully healthy and Lamb has a relatively decent price here considering we've got a point total bobbing near 50.

Justin Jefferson

This is a great price if you're buying into the narrative that Justin Jefferson is poised for a bounceback season with Kyler Murray under center. I'm sure buying it and I think Kevin O'Connell will want to get Jefferson involved early this season after all that was said about his 2025. If he goes off at all in Week 1, this is probably the best price we'll see all year.

Nico Collins

As noted above, I don't really trust the Bills' new defense without Sean McDermott and while I think the Texans will largely try and pound the ball with David Montgomery, they'll certainly take some shots. C.J. Stroud would like to remind people about 2024 after a rough 2025 and the ensuing offseason, and there's no better way to do it than bombing one to his star wideout Nico Collins.

Garrett Wilson

Again, we're buying the dip here, people. Garrett Wilson has a great price given his talent and the fact the Jets upgraded at quarterback with Geno Smith. The Titans defense will be better under Robert Salah but they probably won't be a lockdown unit and Wilson at nearly 2.5-1 is a great look in what could be a sneaky shootout.