Bowl, CFP projections: How more top-25 losses shifted postseason picture

Things got spooky in Week 9 as we saw another overtime victory from the reigning national champions, plus more upsets ... three of which saw ranked Big Ten teams fall.

Similar to Week 8, we saw five ranked teams fall to unranked opponents Saturday. Unranked Syracuse and Oregon pulled off big conference wins at home, and it was a big day for the state of Iowa as Iowa State and Iowa earned wins over No. 24 Oklahoma State and No. 25 Wisconsin. To cap it off, Lincoln Riley and the USC Trojans stunned No. 2 Ohio State at home as Riley earned his first AP top-five win as USC's coach.

Following all that, we take a look at how the postseason picture shifted after Week 9.

New to the 2026 season, the Power 4 conference champions will receive automatic bids to the CFP along with the highest-ranked Group of 6 team regardless of whether it is a league champ. The remaining slots in the 12-team field will go to the next seven highest-ranked teams. Notre Dame is guaranteed a spot in the field if it is among the top 12 teams.

The four highest-ranked teams (not necessarily conference champions) will be awarded first-round byes. The other eight teams will meet in first-round games at the campus sites of seeds 5 through 8.

The festivities of bowl season kick off with the Cricket Celebration Bowl at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Dec. 12 and wrap up with the CFP National Championship at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas on Jan. 25.

ESPN bowl gurus Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach will make their predictions for all the postseason matchups every week of the season until the actual matchups are set Dec. 6.

All times Eastern

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First-round games | Quarterfinals
Semis, title game | Bowl season

College Football Playoff

First-round games (at campus sites)

Friday, Dec. 18
8 p.m., ESPN

Saturday, Dec. 19
Noon, ABC/ESPN
3:30 p.m., TNT
7:30 p.m., TNT

Bonagura: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 BYU
Schlabach: No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Kentucky

Bonagura: No. 11 Ohio State at No. 6 Notre Dame
Schlabach: No. 11 Indiana at No. 6 Notre Dame

Bonagura: No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Indiana
Schlabach: No. 10 Wake Forest at No. 7 BYU

Bonagura: No. 9 Wake Forest at No. 8 Kentucky
Schlabach: No. 9 Alabama at No. 8 Texas

CFP quarterfinals

Wednesday, Dec. 30

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl
State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., TNT
Bonagura: No. 8 Kentucky vs. No. 1 Miami
Schlabach: No. 5 Kentucky vs. No. 4 Utah

Friday, Jan. 1

Time slots for quarterfinals at the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential and Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl to be determined on Selection Day (Dec. 6)

Quarterfinals Game 2
Noon, TNT
Bonagura: No. 5 Indiana vs. No. 2 Utah
Schlabach: No. 8 Texas vs. No. 1 Miami

Quarterfinals Game 3
4 p.m., ABC/ESPN
Bonagura: No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 3 UCLA
Schlabach: No. 7 BYU vs. No. 2 Georgia

Quarterfinals Game 4
8 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: No. 5 BYU vs. No. 4 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 3 UCLA

CFP semifinals, national championship game

Thursday, Jan. 14

Capital One Orange Bowl
Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
7:30 p.m., TNT
Bonagura: No. 4 Georgia vs. No. 1 Miami
Schlabach: No. 4 Utah vs. No. 1 Miami

Friday, Jan. 15

Allstate Sugar Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
7:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN
Bonagura: No. 3 UCLA vs. No. 2 Utah
Schlabach: No. 6 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia

Monday, Jan. 25

CFP National Championship
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
7:30 p.m., ABC/ESPN
Bonagura: No. 2 Utah vs. No. 1 Miami
Schlabach: No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 1 Miami

Bowl season schedule

Saturday, Dec. 12

Cricket Celebration Bowl presented by Toyota
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: South Carolina State vs. Jackson State
Schlabach: South Carolina State vs. Alabama A&M

Tuesday, Dec. 15

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: South Carolina vs. Miami (Ohio)
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Louisiana

Frisco Football Classic
The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Louisiana
Schlabach: Tulane vs. Georgia Southern

Wednesday, Dec. 16

TransPerfect San Juan Bowl
Hiram Bithorn Stadium (San Juan, Puerto Rico)
7:30 p.m. ET, TBD
Bonagura: Syracuse vs. Marshall
Schlabach: Boston College vs. Appalachian State

Friday, Dec. 18

Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Liberty vs. Tulsa
Schlabach: Memphis vs. Western Michigan

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
2:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Auburn vs. South Florida
Schlabach: Syracuse vs. Minnesota

Monday, Dec. 21

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
11 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Minnesota vs. Georgia Southern
Schlabach: UMass vs. Marshall

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Western Michigan vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Toledo vs. North Dakota State

Tuesday, Dec. 22

Puerto Rico Bowl
Juan Ramón Loubriel Stadium (Bayamón, Puerto Rico)
1:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UMass vs. West Virginia
Schlabach: FAU vs. Delaware

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Acrisure Bounce House (Orlando, Florida)
5 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Ohio vs. James Madison
Schlabach: Louisiana Tech vs. Middle Tennessee

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
8:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UConn vs. Kansas State
Schlabach: Washington vs. West Virginia

Wednesday, Dec. 23

New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Jacksonville State vs. Appalachian State
Schlabach: Jacksonville State vs. James Madison

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: UCF vs. North Texas
Schlabach: UCF vs. Army

San Diego County Credit Union Poinsettia Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
7:30 p.m., The CW
Bonagura: Fresno State vs. Washington
Schlabach: Fresno State vs. Arizona State

Frisco Bowl
The Star (Frisco, Texas)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Buffalo vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Liberty vs. New Mexico

Thursday, Dec. 24

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
2:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Wyoming vs. UTSA
Schlabach: UNLV vs. Tulsa

Sheraton Hawai'i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
7 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Texas State vs. North Dakota State
Schlabach: Air Force vs. Texas State

Saturday, Dec. 26

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (New York)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Duke vs. Nebraska
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Northwestern

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: North Carolina vs. East Carolina
Schlabach: NC State vs. South Florida

Duke's Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Penn State
Schlabach: Duke vs. Nebraska

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Louisiana Tech vs. Air Force
Schlabach: UAB vs. Miami (Ohio)

Cactus Bowl
Mountain America Stadium (Tempe, Arizona)
7:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Cincinnati
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Cincinnati

Monday, Dec. 28

Freedom Mortgage Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Virginia vs. Army
Schlabach: North Carolina vs. UTSA

Trust & Will Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
5 p.m., The CW
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Oregon State
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Oregon

Tuesday, Dec. 29

JLab Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Mississippi State vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Mississippi State vs. Illinois

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: SMU vs. Houston
Schlabach: SMU vs. Houston

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Texas Tech vs. Oregon
Schlabach: Texas Tech vs. USC

Wednesday, Dec. 30

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
11:30 a.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Florida
Schlabach: Virginia Tech vs. Tennessee

Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
3 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Wisconsin vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Wisconsin vs. South Carolina

Thursday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon, ESPN
Bonagura: Northwestern vs. Texas
Schlabach: Ohio State vs. Ole Miss

Old El Paso Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 p.m., CBS
Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. Arizona
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Oregon State

Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:45 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: USC vs. Oklahoma
Schlabach: Arizona vs. Missouri

Kinder's Texas Bowl
Reliant Stadium (Houston)
7:30 p.m., ESPN
Bonagura: Oklahoma State vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Florida

Saturday, Jan. 2

Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
Noon, ABC
Bonagura: Iowa vs. LSU
Schlabach: Iowa vs. LSU

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
3:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Texas A&M vs. Arkansas State
Schlabach: Penn State vs. North Texas

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Casino Del Sol Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 p.m., The CW
Bonagura: Toledo vs. New Mexico
Schlabach: Ohio vs. Wyoming

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
7:30 p.m., ABC
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Oklahoma State vs. Auburn