ANALYSIS: COP31 puts climate finance, fossil fuel transition, energy ambitions to test

Nearly 11 years after the adoption of the Paris Agreement, world leaders are preparing for another round of climate negotiations amid growing concerns that global commitments are not translating into action quickly enough to address the climate crisis.

The 31st Conference of the Parties (COP31) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), scheduled for 9 to 20 November in Antalya, Türkiye, will bring together governments, climate scientists, development institutions, businesses and civil society organisations to negotiate the next steps in the global response to climate change.

The summit comes at a critical time, as countries face increasing pressure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, accelerate investment in clean energy and protect communities already experiencing the effects of rising temperatures.

Yet some of the most difficult questions in international climate negotiations remain unresolved.

Who should pay for climate action? How quickly should countries move away from fossil fuels? And how can developing economies pursue economic growth while reducing emissions and protecting vulnerable populations?

These questions are particularly important for Nigeria and other African countries, where the consequences of climate change are becoming increasingly visible through flooding, drought, extreme heat and pressure on agricultural production.

Beyond the environmental consequences, the negotiations have implications for electricity access, public health, food security, employment and the ability of developing countries to attract investment in cleaner technologies.

COP31 is not expected to produce a single agreement comparable to the Paris Agreement. Instead, much of the work will centre on implementing existing commitments, resolving disagreements carried over from previous conferences and establishing clearer pathways for financing climate action.

The central test will be whether countries can move beyond repeated declarations and agree on practical measures that deliver measurable results.

An unusual leadership arrangement

One distinctive feature of COP31 is the arrangement between Türkiye and Australia, which will share responsibilities for organising and leading the conference.

Türkiye will host the summit, with its Minister of Environment, Urbanisation and Climate Change, Murat Kurum, serving as COP president. Australia’s Minister for Climate Change and Energy, Chris Bowen, will serve as president of negotiations.

The arrangement followed a compromise after both countries pursued competing bids to host the conference.

Under the agreement, Türkiye will oversee the presidency and action agenda, while Australia will lead the formal negotiations.

The partnership is significant because the two countries approach climate policy from different economic positions.

Türkiye is an emerging economy seeking to expand industrial development and energy security, while Australia is a developed economy with substantial fossil fuel production and exports.

Their leadership will therefore be tested by the same disagreements that have complicated previous climate summits, particularly those concerning fossil fuels, climate finance and the responsibilities of developed and developing countries.

The Turkish presidency has placed implementation, electrification, green industrial development and resilient infrastructure among its priorities.

One of its flagship initiatives is the 35-by-35 Global Electrification Pledge, which seeks to increase electricity’s share of global final energy consumption to 35 per cent by 2035, from just over 20 per cent.

The initiative is intended to encourage greater use of electricity in transport, buildings and industry, supported by cleaner power generation, modern electricity grids and energy storage.

However, the pledge forms part of the presidency’s voluntary action agenda rather than a binding agreement negotiated by all countries.

This distinction matters because announcements made by summit organisers do not automatically become obligations under the UN climate process.

The World Leaders Climate Action Summit, scheduled for 11 and 12 November, will provide an early indication of the political support available for these priorities.

The finance question remains unresolved

Climate finance is likely to be among the most contentious issues in Antalya.

Developing countries have long argued that they cannot be expected to reduce emissions and adapt to climate impacts without substantial financial support from wealthier nations, which bear greater historical responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions. This principle is reflected in Article 9 of the Paris Agreement, which requires developed countries to provide financial resources to support developing countries’ mitigation and adaptation efforts.

At COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, in 2024, countries agreed that developed nations should take the lead in mobilising at least $300 billion annually in climate finance for developing countries by 2035. The agreement also called for efforts to scale up finance from all public and private sources to at least $1.3 trillion annually by the same year.

The two figures are not interchangeable. The $300 billion target is the new collective finance goal led by developed countries, while the wider $1.3 trillion ambition is expected to draw on a broader range of sources, including private investment.

For developing countries, the concern is whether the money will be available on affordable terms and reach the communities and sectors most exposed to climate risks.

A major disagreement concerns the responsibility of developed countries to provide financial resources under the Paris Agreement.

Developing countries want discussions to address these obligations, particularly the provision of public finance. Some wealthier countries favour a broader approach that includes improving access to finance and expanding the range of contributors.

For Nigeria, the funding needs are substantial.

The country requires investment in renewable energy, electricity infrastructure, climate-resilient agriculture, flood management and early-warning systems. Many of these interventions will depend on concessional finance and public investment, rather than private capital alone.

The question at COP31 will be whether countries can make progress on the scale, quality and accessibility of climate finance, rather than simply restating funding ambitions.

Fossil fuels and the just transition

The future of fossil fuels will also remain a difficult issue.

At COP28 in Dubai in 2023, countries agreed for the first time in a final climate decision to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner. The agreement also called for tripling global renewable energy capacity and doubling the rate of energy-efficiency improvements by 2030.

The decision marked a significant shift in climate negotiations. However, countries have continued to disagree over how to implement it, and the commitment has yet to translate into an agreed global roadmap for moving away from coal, oil and gas.

At COP30 in Belém, Brazil, in 2025, countries failed to secure a formal roadmap for the transition away from fossil fuels. The omission exposed the continuing divide between nations seeking faster action and those whose economies depend heavily on fossil fuel production.

The issue is particularly sensitive for Nigeria, where oil and gas remain important sources of government revenue and foreign exchange. At the same time, millions of people lack reliable electricity, while gas flaring, pollution and energy poverty continue to affect communities.

A transition that ignores these realities risks deepening existing inequalities. But maintaining dependence on fossil fuels without a credible plan for cleaner energy also exposes the country to economic and environmental risks as the global energy system changes.

This is where the just transition mechanism agreed at COP30 becomes important. Countries are expected to discuss its structure and implementation at COP31.

The mechanism is intended to strengthen international cooperation, technical assistance and capacity-building to help countries and workers navigate the shift to lower-carbon economies.

For Nigeria, a meaningful just transition must go beyond replacing one energy source with another. It should address the affordability and reliability of electricity, the future of workers in fossil fuel-dependent industries, the development of local clean-energy businesses and the needs of communities affected by environmental degradation.

Adaptation cannot wait

While emissions reduction receives considerable attention at climate summits, adaptation is equally urgent for countries already experiencing the effects of climate change.

Flooding, prolonged dry spells and rising temperatures are affecting livelihoods and infrastructure across Africa. In Nigeria, recurring floods have displaced communities, damaged homes and farms, disrupted transport and increased pressure on public services.

The effects extend beyond physical damage.

Extreme heat can affect workers’ productivity and health, while disruptions to agricultural production can worsen food insecurity. Poorer households often have fewer resources to recover from these shocks.

At COP30, countries agreed on 59 indicators to help measure progress towards the Global Goal on Adaptation. The indicators are intended to assess how countries are strengthening resilience in areas such as water, food systems, health and infrastructure.

However, agreeing on indicators does not automatically provide the resources needed to implement adaptation plans. Developing countries continue to demand more predictable funding, particularly for projects that may not attract private investment.

COP30 also called for efforts to at least triple adaptation finance by 2035. Questions remain over how the commitment will be measured and delivered.

Nigeria’s climate ambitions

Nigeria will arrive in Antalya with an updated climate commitment that sets out a more specific emissions-reduction pathway.

Under its third Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC 3.0), submitted in 2025, Nigeria targets an absolute emissions reduction of 168.2 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2030 and 184.9 million tonnes by 2035, using 2018 as its base year. These targets represent reductions of about 29 and 32 per cent, respectively, against the country’s 2018 net emissions. Nigeria also maintains its ambition to achieve net-zero emissions by 2060.

The plan includes commitments for the energy, industrial, agriculture, land-use and waste sectors. For the oil and gas industry, it targets zero routine gas flaring by 2030, alongside reductions in fugitive emissions from leaks and venting.

But the challenge is turning these commitments into functioning projects and measurable results.

Achieving these targets will require sustained investment in renewable energy, stronger electricity infrastructure, effective regulation and better coordination among government agencies and private investors.

This is particularly relevant to COP31’s proposed 35-by-35 electrification target.

A narrowing window for climate action

COP31 also comes as the international community prepares for the second Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement, the process through which countries assess collective progress towards the treaty’s goals.

The first stocktake, concluded in 2023, found that global efforts were insufficient to keep the world on track to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Its outcome called for faster action on renewable energy, energy efficiency, deforestation and the transition away from fossil fuels.

The latest United Nations Environment Programme Emissions Gap Report reinforces the urgency. It warns that global temperatures are expected to exceed the 1.5-degree threshold, even as it argues that the scale and duration of that overshoot can still be limited through faster emissions cuts.

The report estimates that current national climate pledges, if fully implemented, would reduce emissions by only 11 to 15 per cent by 2035 compared with 2025 levels. A pathway designed to return global temperatures to 1.5 degrees by the end of the century would require emissions to fall by 45 per cent by 2035.

The United States’ absence from the official government delegation will also be notable.

The country formally withdrew from the Paris Agreement in January 2026, presenting another challenge to international cooperation at a time when stronger action from major emitters is needed.

Ultimately, the significance of COP31 will not be measured by the number of speeches, announcements or pledges made in Antalya. It will depend on whether countries can resolve outstanding disagreements, strengthen support for vulnerable nations and establish practical pathways for delivering commitments already on the table.

For Nigeria, the summit should be more than an opportunity to restate its climate ambitions. It is a chance to push for accessible finance, strengthen the case for investment in clean energy and ensure that the transition supports jobs, electricity access and livelihoods.

This report is published as part of the COP31 Reporting Fellowship of the Centre for Journalism Innovation and Development