Latest Citi poll of Mexico-based analysts sees weakened peso through 2027

The “super peso” that strengthened the Mexican currency’s exchange rate to under 17 per dollar for more than a week in late August and early September won’t be returning any time soon, according to the Citi Survey of Expectations published on Tuesday. 

The prevailing opinion of the Mexico-based analysts consulted is that the peso will trade at 18 pesos per dollar at the end of 2026, a half peso weaker than was suggested in the early September Citi forecast, published at the height of the super peso. It is seen weakening further to 18.50 by the end of 2027, although some of the survey responders see it approaching 20 to the dollar.

If proof is needed that economics is not an exact science, one can note that predictions  from the consulted institutions range from 16.80 to 18.80 pesos per dollar by the end of the year. Several financial institutions, including Barclays, BNP Paribas, Bx+, Citi, Bank of America, Santander México, and Itaú BBA, expect a more favorable outcome, while Masari Casa de Bolsa and Bankaool expect the peso to depreciate more quickly. 

The analysts mainly agree on the peso weakening even further against the dollar in 2027, but not on how much.

“By the end of 2027, the consensus expects the exchange rate to be at 18.50 pesos per dollar, down from 18 pesos per dollar two weeks ago, with expectations ranging from 17.00 to 19.80,” the Citi Survey stated.

On Sept. 4, the peso traded at 16.89 pesos per dollar before depreciating throughout the rest of September, finally inching above 18  after losing 46 centavos against the dollar between September 28 and October 2. During September, the peso was the worst-performing currency against the dollar, falling 6%.

The dollar fell back under 18 pesos on Tuesday, but most analysts don’t foresee the peso remaining so strong, amid heightened global risk aversion and concerns about inflation and interest-rate differentials.

In the survey, 25 of 37 respondents said they expect the Bank of Mexico’s interest rate to remain at 6.5% through the end of 2027, a major factor in the pessimistic prognosis of the peso’s value. 

Minutes from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting, due Wednesday, could provide greater insight into interest rates and the U.S. central bank’s policy plans, informing future forecasts.