Elnino Rains Expected Nationwide Next Week As Kenya Meteorological Service Issues County Timelines

The Kenya Meteorological Service (KMS) has officially announced the onset of the October–December “short rains” season, warning of wetter-than-normal conditions across several parts of the country.

Acting Head of the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority, Edward Muriuki, confirmed that rains have already commenced in 24 counties across western Kenya, the Rift Valley, and the coastal strip. Rainfall is expected to spread to remaining regions over the coming weeks, with Turkana and Samburu forecasted to record the latest onset between the third and fourth weeks of October.

County Onset Timeline

• Rains Underway (24 Counties): Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Busia, Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Kisii, Nyamira, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, West Pokot, Baringo, Nakuru, Kericho, Bomet, Narok, Nandi, Mombasa, Kwale, Kilifi, Lamu, and the Tana Delta.

• First to Second Week of October: Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa, and Isiolo.

• Mid-to-Late October: Nairobi, Kiambu, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Nyeri, Nyandarua, Laikipia, Embu, Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado, Taita Taveta, and inland Tana River.

• Third to Fourth Week of October: Turkana and Samburu.

Agricultural Outlook and Climate Drivers

The enhanced rainfall is projected to boost soil moisture, aid land preparation, and support pasture and water availability for livestock. However, KMS warned that excessive precipitation risks triggering waterlogging, crop diseases, and transport disruptions. Residents in low-lying areas and along floodplains have been urged to prepare for potential flooding, mudslides, and landslides.

Muriuki noted that the seasonal outlook is driven by a combination of climate factors, including a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and developing El Niño conditions. He advised farmers to consult county-specific meteorological offices for localized guidance, as intensity and duration will vary. Higher-than-average temperatures are also expected nationwide throughout the season.

The short rains are expected to persist into January 2027 across most central, western, and eastern counties, though northern regions such as Mandera, Wajir, and Garissa are projected to see the season wind down by early December.