Petrol and diesel price CUTS in time for Local Government Elections

South African motorists could receive some welcome relief at the pumps in November, with diesel prices potentially falling by more than R1.60 per litre and petrol prices also expected to decrease.

The latest Central Energy Fund (CEF) figures show significant under-recoveries across all four main fuel grades.

However, the temporary fuel levy reductions announced by Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana during his Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) have changed the November outlook.

The government is temporarily reducing the general fuel levy by R1.50 per litre for petrol and R3.00 per litre for diesel during November as part of a R10 billion relief package.

The CEF figures as of Thursday, 29 October, show petrol 93 with an under-recovery of R1.17 per litre and petrol 95 under-recovered by R1.01 per litre.

Diesel 0.05% is under-recovered by R1.42 per litre, while diesel 0.005% has an under-recovery of R1.32 per litre.

How much could fuel prices drop in November?

Godongwana announced a temporary fuel levy reduction as part of a R10 billion relief package intended to ease pressure on consumers.

For November, the general fuel levy will be reduced by R1.50 per litre for petrol and R3 per litre for diesel.

Based on the latest CEF snapshot and the relief measures, the indicative November inland prices are:

Fuel type	Oct price	Nov projection	Levy	Potential change
Petrol 93	R29.88	R31.05	(R1.50)	-33c/l
Petrol 95	R30.25	R31.26	(R1.50)	-49c/l
Diesel 0.05%	R31.95	R33.37	(R3.00)	-R1.58/l
Diesel 0.005%	R33.29	R34.61	(R3.00)	-R1.68/l

The projections suggest that diesel motorists could benefit from the biggest reductions, with both grades potentially dropping by more than R1.50 per litre.

Petrol motorists could also see savings, although the projected reductions are considerably smaller.

These figures remain indicative and are not confirmed pump prices. The final adjustments will depend on international market movements, the rand and other elements of the fuel-pricing structure.

Oil prices could wipe out petrol cuts

The outlook remains uncertain as international oil prices rise amid renewed tensions in the Middle East.

Oil climbed to around $115 per barrel during the week, while the rand traded at around R16.50 to the US dollar.

Both factors influence South Africa’s fuel prices and could erode the projected savings before the end of October.

A weaker rand, further oil price increases or a significant slate levy adjustment could turn the projected cuts into increases.

The new prices are scheduled to take effect at midnight on Tuesday, 3 November, just ahead of the Local Government Elections.

FUEL PRICE IN SOUTH AFRICA IMPACTED BY TWO MAIN FACTORS:

1. The international price of petroleum products, driven mainly by oil prices.

2. The rand/dollar exchange rate used in the purchase of these products.

Oil price

At the time of publishing the brent crude oil price is $112.68 a barrel.

Exchange rate

At the time of publishing the rand/dollar exchange rate is R16.64/$.