Tinder sparks renewed interest in Match as Evercore upgrades to Outperform
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Based on the increasing popularity of its Tinder dating site and the overall positive trends in online dating, Evercore ISI analysts led by Robert Coolbirth raised their outlook on Match Group (MTCH) to Outperform from In Line.
And despite an already 33% appreciation so far this year, Coolbirth and team see further upside for Tinder’s parent company Match (MTCH) and raised their target price another 36% to $53, which represents a 23% premium to Friday’s closing price.
“We believe current fundamental trends are the best we have seen since 2021-2022 and that the stock is now positioned for positive estimate revisions with further upward rerating potential,” Coolbirth and his team write.
The upgrade and ambitious price target for the parent company is attributed to Sensor Tower Data, which indicated a turn to positive year-over-year global monthly average user (MAU) growth for Tinder in September, the first month of positive data since February 2022.
“We note a 3.2-point acceleration in third quarter 2026 Sensor Tower panel MAU as potentially signaling an inflection in Tinder MAU growth vs. the recent pattern of steady acceleration in company-reported MAU,” the analysts note.
There is also a meaningful improvement in online dating use. According to Evercore’s annual U.S. dating survey, online dating use among actively dating 18-29-year-olds rose to 70% from 56% a year ago, and Tinder use among Gen Z daters rose to 78% from 64%, the highest result in the survey’s history.
In addition to a ratings change and increased target price, Coolbirth raises Tinder’s payer growth to 3.8% from 1.5% and lifts FY27 revenue and adjusted EBITDA estimates to $3.738B and $1.463B, respectively, making Evercore 3% higher than street estimates. These estimates exclude a potential Apple (AAPL) commission on off-platform payments (which contains a headwind of ~$70M of EBITDA or $3 per share).
Match Group (MTCH) shares are gaining ground in Monday’s premarket trading and were last changing hands with a gain of 2.7%.
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