Russia’s parliamentary election results were predictable but what comes next matters

The result of Russia’s tightly controlled parliamentary election was never in serious doubt: a resounding win for the ruling United Russia party, which fervently backs President Vladimir Putin and Russia’s war in Ukraine.

The fact that genuine political opposition to the Kremlin and its costly war has been effectively silenced in recent years made the outcome of the ballot – the first parliamentary elections since 2021, before the Ukraine war began – all the more inevitable. The only remaining opposition party calling for an end to the war, Yabloko, was barred from taking part.

Even before the vote, Putin told Russians the election would showcase national unity and that “millions of people are backing our fighters” – a sign of his confidence in the result.

The nationwide election has also been used to underline that Russia – unlike Ukraine – is prepared to hold a vote in wartime, which may curry favor with US President Donald Trump, who has criticized Kyiv’s constitutional ban on elections during martial law.

But what was always far less certain than the outcome of this Russian vote, and potentially more significant, is how a fresh veneer of political support would be used and what course of action the Kremlin will push next.

The mere staging of a nationwide vote – across 11 Russian time zones and in annexed regions occupied by Russian forces in Ukraine – has been cast in Russia as a sign of normalcy, which is important to the Kremlin as it grapples with an escalating war.

Amid soaring casualties on the front lines, mounting economic hardship and rising public anxiety, the reality of what Russia calls its Special Military Operation in Ukraine is increasingly being felt.

Yet with the relentless Ukrainian drone strikes – including the biggest wave ever launched against the Moscow region as voting took place this weekend – the Kremlin has been at pains to reassure Russians that life goes on largely unaffected.

But that reassurance may become harder to sustain as pressure builds on Russia’s war machine, and the Kremlin vows to press ahead with achieving its military objectives in Ukraine, whatever the cost.

One of the sharpest fears, as the Kremlin pushes to break the frontline deadlock, is that the Kremlin will use its claim of a fresh mandate to launch a new round of forced mobilization into the depleting ranks of the Russian military.

A chaotic partial mobilization in September 2022 saw about 300,000 men called up, sparking widespread anger and the panicked exodus through gridlocked border checkpoints of hundreds of thousands of Russians desperate to escape the draft.

The Kremlin has since tightened border controls, making it harder to flee. But it has also dismissed outright concerns of a repeat as scaremongering, with Putin himself categorically denying there is a general call-up plan, lambasting the speculation as “complete nonsense” and an “information attack on Russia.”

Given that personal insistence, the election – in which 49 veterans of the Ukraine war were elected – is more likely to be used as evidence that Russia rewards its soldiers with plum political jobs, as a means of boosting voluntary recruitment.

Still, some cautious Russians of military age, fearing a U-turn, are leaving the country just in case, mindful that the dire need for fresh troops could eventually outweigh the Kremlin’s urge to avoid public outrage.

There are heightened concerns of other measures in the offing too – from a renewed military push in Ukraine to further tightening of social and economic controls at home – by a Kremlin that feels like the resounding parliamentary election result has delivered renewed authority to act.