South Africa’s hottest summer yet? These provinces face the biggest heatwave risk

South Africa is heading into a potentially hot, dry summer, with a strong El Niño expected to increase heatwave risk across much of the country.

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) has forecast above-normal temperatures and below-normal rainfall across much of the country during the coming summer.

SAWS has warned that the strong El Niño event and continued global warming could lead to a high frequency of heatwaves, some potentially severe.

Which provinces face the biggest risk this summer?

While the warmer conditions are expected across much of South Africa, several provinces and regions are particularly exposed.

KwaZulu-Natal, the Eastern Cape and Mpumalanga are already experiencing heatwave conditions this October.

SAWS warned last week that persistently high temperatures were affecting parts of all three provinces, with northern KwaZulu-Natal, parts of the Eastern Cape and Mpumalanga among the areas affected.

The risk extends beyond those three provinces.

Agricultural experts have identified the Free State, North West, Mpumalanga and Limpopo as particularly vulnerable to hotter and drier conditions during the 2026/27 summer season.

These provinces are important grain-producing areas, meaning prolonged heat and reduced rainfall could have consequences beyond simply making summer uncomfortable.

Limpopo and Mpumalanga could feel the heat

The Lowveld areas of Mpumalanga and parts of Limpopo can already experience very high temperatures during summer.

SAWS has also warned of extremely high fire-danger conditions in parts of Mpumalanga and Limpopo, as well as the Free State, KwaZulu-Natal, Eastern Cape, Northern Cape and Western Cape.

Hot, dry conditions can increase the risk of veld and vegetation fires, while placing additional pressure on water supplies.

What about Gauteng?

Gauteng is also included in the broader national outlook for above-normal temperatures.

The province is not necessarily expected to experience continuous heatwaves, however. SAWS stresses that seasonal forecasts describe the likelihood of conditions over a wider period, rather than predicting exactly when an individual heatwave will occur.

Shorter-range forecasts will provide a clearer picture of specific heatwaves as summer progresses.

A warning, not a guarantee of drought

SAWS has been careful to point out that El Niño does not automatically mean drought.

While below-normal rainfall is statistically the most likely outcome during the current event, previous El Niño seasons have produced different results in different parts of South Africa.

The latest outlook nevertheless points to a hotter and drier summer being the most likely outcome across much of the country.

The World Meteorological Organisation has also said the current El Niño is almost certain to persist until February 2027 and could rank among the strongest events since at least 1950.