A Capitol Hill vibe shift: From the Politics Desk

Welcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.

In today’s edition, Sahil Kapur digs into the vibe shift on Capitol Hill with lawmakers returning to Washington for the first time since the midterm elections. Plus, Joelle Gross zeroes in on the Democratic candidates who made the furthest inroads with President Donald Trump’s voters.

— Adam Wollner

A blue tsunami empowers Democrats as Congress returns to Washington

Analysis by Sahil Kapur

The vibes are different on Capitol Hill, with Republicans still shell-shocked by the magnitude of last week’s electoral thumping as they return to Washington as lame ducks with a lengthy to-do list.

Outstanding items include:

• Passing a government funding bill by the Dec. 11 deadline to prevent a shutdown.
• Passing the annual National Defense Authorization Act.
• Passing a farm bill for agriculture and food-assistance policy.
• Deciding whether — and how — to renew FISA Section 702 warrantless surveillance.
• Figuring out a permitting reform deal to streamline construction projects.Figuring out whether to pass or abandon a college sports bill.
• Reviewing President Donald Trump’s nominees in the Senate.
• Considering a House resolution to impeach Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, led by Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky.

Democrats feel empowered by their far-reaching midterm victories, as they made deep incursions into red-leaning territory amid a voter backlash to Trump.

Some say that their mandate includes ending the Iran war and that lawmakers shouldn’t pass any government funding bill without cutting off money for Trump to continue the war without congressional approval.

“I believe we would abdicate our responsibility if we voted to provide billions of additional dollars for President Trump’s war of choice in Iran,” Sen. Michael Bennet, D-Colo., a moderate, wrote in a letter to colleagues Saturday. “We must refuse to invoke cloture on any package that includes another cent for his war.”

Meanwhile, a small group of Republicans is pushing to delay tomorrow’s closed-door meeting to pick their leadership team for the next two years. The top three GOP senators — John Thune of South Dakota, John Barrasso of Wyoming and Tom Cotton of Arkansas — are favored to hold their positions in the minority, but not without some pushback.

“A week ago, we had the worst election result in decades. We need a discussion about what went wrong, how we fix it, what we stand for, and how our agenda must focus on the concerns of the American people,” Sen. David McCormick, R-Pa., who rarely steps out of line with GOP leadership, said in a statement.

“As I’ve shared with Leader Thune, I don’t believe we should move to leadership elections until we have digested and debated the lessons of the midterms and how to move forward,” he added.

There is no internal consensus yet among Republicans about why they lost so decisively, and many of them are reluctant to point fingers at Trump, even though the results and exit polls overwhelmingly indicate voters were delivering a rebuke of him.

Thune said the election gives the GOP an “opportunity to reflect on what we as a party need to do better.”

The big question for Trump and Republicans is how much they’re willing to compromise over the next six weeks, while they retain their maximum leverage, to achieve some of their year-end goals. Come Jan. 3, Democrats are poised to take power on Capitol Hill with some of the biggest majorities here since 2009.

How exit poll data explains the millions of Trump voters who went blue, in maps and charts

By Joelle Gross

Millions of Americans who voted for President Donald Trump backed Democrats in last week’s midterm elections — that much is clear from the vote counts. But to understand why, it helps to drill down into the exit polls.

Voters turned away from Trump and the Republicans out of deep frustration over the economy and concerns about the state of American democracy, an analysis of the NBC News Exit Poll data found. Democrats re-energized young and Latino voters, among other groups, fueling a historic takeover of Congress and grabbing Senate seats in states that had seemed tattooed red.

Tuesday’s Democratic success came not only by mobilizing the party’s base. Senate candidates from Texas to South Carolina to New Hampshire swayed former Trump voters. In some states, percentages of Trump voters turning out for Democrats reached double digits.

About 13% of voters who chose Trump in 2024 voted for Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff in Georgia this year, the exit poll suggests. James Talarico in Texas and Mark Warner in Virginia drew 11%. Nationally, around 7% of former Trump voters opted for Democratic candidates in House elections. By comparison, 2% of those who voted for Kamala Harris split for Republican House candidates.

Read more →

🗞️ Today's other top stories

• 🗳️ Going there again: Days after he said he was “absolutely willing” to accept the massive Republican losses in the midterm elections, Trump suggested on social media that the Democratic victories weren’t “honest.” Read more →
• 📺 And/but: Trump conceded that his immigration policies were “too tough,” saying in an interview on CBS News’ “60 Minutes” that mass deportations hurt him in the midterms. Read more →
• ⚖️ SCOTUS watch: The Supreme Court allowed Trump to move forward with construction of his border wall in the remote Big Bend region of southwest Texas. Read more →
• 🏛️ On the Hill: A pair of House Democrats will try to bypass Republican leaders and force a vote to restore Temporary Protected Status to Afghan nationals in the U.S. Read more →
• 📖 Biden book: Former President Joe Biden wrote in his forthcoming memoir that Trump’s actions during the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol “should follow him to his grave.” Read more →
• 🎤 Just kidding: Trump said he was joking when he offered the job of White House press secretary to Dana White, the CEO and president of Ultimate Fighting Championship. Read more →
• 🌊 Political whiplash: They fled Democratic-run states to escape liberal policies. Then the blue wave hit. Read more →

That’s all From the Politics Desk for now. Today’s newsletter was compiled by Adam Wollner.

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