The little humanoid robots that could

What if the prevailing investment thesis on the humanoid robot sector got turned on its head? The question is relevant because of an interesting development in the humanoid robot industry, as many of the leading companies focus more on half-size robots instead of the full-size robots favored by Tesla (TSLA) with generations of its Optimus humanoid robot form factor.

BTIG analyst Jesse Sobelson noted that the category has split into two largely separate product classes. The first is half-size systems, mostly Chinese, measuring roughly 94–138 cm and weighing 12–40 kg, while the second is full-size machines generally standing 165–190 cm tall and weighing 47–90 kg. The smaller products are primarily developer, educational, research, and interaction platforms, while full-size robots are intended for warehouse, factory, service, and potential home-assistance applications.

Due to the high mix of half-size robots, Sobelson and his team make the crucial point that industry shipment figures can be misleading if they are interpreted as evidence of broad adoption of human-scale robotic labor. BTIG estimates that major players Unitree and AgiBot had built approximately 31K humanoids through June. Of those, only about 9.8K, or 32%, were full-size units of any type, and full-size bipeds represented only about 13% of cumulative production. For investors, that means as humanoid robot bulls point to the industry’s estimated +40K cumulative shipments through mid-2026, many were smaller, lower-cost Chinese units rather than industrial-grade humanoid bipeds, which changes the investment case.

Hangzhou-based Unitree is the clearest example of the half-size trend. The company's smaller R1 and G1 products are priced approximately from $4,900 to $21,500 depending on configuration. That pricing makes them accessible to developers, universities, research groups, and early commercial users. BTIG expects Unitree’s 2026 shipments to at least double from around 6,000 in 2025, while the company plans for an annual capacity of 30K units. Shanghai-based AgiBot has a broader product range but also remains clearly focused on its half-size X-series biped production.

Tesla (TSLA) is the major potential challenger to the current half-size dominance in the humanoid robot market. BTIG says Tesla anticipated Optimus production at Fremont later in 2026 but warned that initial output would be slow because the new line includes about 10K unique parts. Sobelson views Tesla (TSLA), along with Figure, 1X, and Boston Dynamics, as the key players if there is to be a future shift toward full-size systems.

The largest and most focused humanoid robotics ETFs are KraneShares Global Humanoid Robotics & Physical AI Index ETF (KOID), Roundhill Humanoid Robotics ETF (HUMN), Themes Humanoid Robotics ETF (BOTT), and the broader Global X Robotics & Artificial Intelligence ETF (BOTZ).