Dodgers Win Game 1: The 89% Odds That Could Crush Atlanta’s Hopes

The 89% Reality Check

Most fans think a Game 2 win just evens the score. That is wrong. History says teams that jump out to a 2-0 lead in a best-of-five series win the whole thing 89% of the time. That is 83 wins out of 93 tries. The math is brutal and the odds are stacked against the Braves right now.

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Per MLB.com, the Dodgers took a 5-3 victory in the opener at Dodger Stadium. Atlanta now faces a massive mountain to climb before the series shifts back to Truist Park. Teams that lose the first two games on the road have only recovered to win the series three times in 36 chances. The path is narrow and the margin for error is zero.

Dave Roberts knows exactly where his team stands. "To win Game 1 is certainly important, very important," the Dodgers manager said. He added, "We're in a good spot. It all starts with winning Game 1." The Dodgers are sitting on that spot while the Braves stare down a potential sweep before even getting home.

The Pitching Puzzle

The Braves are stuck in a tough spot with their starting rotation. Kerr will start Game 2, Sale is scheduled for Game 3. Last Tuesday, the 37-year-old hurler delivered 95 pitches versus the Phillies, then added 21 more to finish the Wild Card Series on Thursday.

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The Dodgers, meanwhile, are counting on LHP Blake Snell to shut down the Atlanta offense. Last October, Snell posted a 0.86 ERA across three postseason NLCS starts, yet he surrendered five earned runs in every World Series outing.

Snell has some added motivation this year after a rough World Series. Nine regular-season starts were all he managed due to shoulder fatigue and elbow surgery aimed at removing loose bodies. Although left groin tightness affected him in September, he felt fine after his final start and workouts during the bye week. The key stat for Snell is his 11.6 K/9, which ranked 6th among MLB starters with at least 40 innings pitched.

Can the Unit Turn It Around?

The Braves need a spark to survive this series. Within his first six postseason at-bats, Sean Murphy has hit both a double and a home run. He is also 3-for-8 with a double and a homer in his career against Snell. He might return to the lineup, as manager Walt Weiss suggested Lane Thomas could also play a vital part.

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Brent Suter knows the stakes are higher than just a regular season win. "We're trying to get something special going," the Braves reliever said. He believes the team has a strong core but needs to elevate for October. "We already have a really special unit, but we're trying to make it a really, really special postseason. So we've got to get one [Sunday]."

The Dodgers have the history on their side, but the Braves have the heart to fight. The question is whether they can overcome the 89% statistic that has crushed so many other teams before them. First pitch is set for 8 p.m. ET on Sunday at Dodger Stadium. The game will be broadcast on FS1, Fox Deportes, and FOX One. This is the moment where the season is either saved or lost.