Super Bowl and NFL MVP predictions for 2026 season, plus 49ers-Rams picks and Sam Darnold injury details

Hello football friends, and welcome to the Thursday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!

The NFL season officially kicked off on Wednesday night, and all I have to say is that if the rest of the year is going to be as crazy as Seattle's win over New England, then this is going to go down as the wildest season ever. 

Speaking of crazy, we have another game coming our way Thursday night with the 49ers facing the Rams... OK, well, technically speaking, I guess the game isn't Thursday because it's kicking off on Friday morning in Australia. But due to the 14-hour time difference between Melbourne and the Eastern Time Zone, we'll be able to watch it live at 8:35 p.m. ET. I think. I'll be honest, time zone math is harder than calculus. 

And just as a reminder, the game in Australia is going to be on Netflix, and I only tell you that so you don't spend 20 minutes clicking around looking for it on your TV. Anyway, in today's newsletter, we'll be making some picks for that game, and we'll be breaking down Seattle's wild win over the Patriots. 

As always, here's your daily reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the newsletter. To get them signed up, all you have to do is click here. Let's get to the rundown. 

1. Seahawks beat Patriots in Wednesday night thriller: Four things to know

Every time the NFL puts a primetime game in Seattle, things always get crazy, and last night's game was no exception. The Seahawks fell behind 10-0, lost their starting quarterback on the opening possession and yet somehow still managed to beat the Patriots, 13-10. 

Here's what you need to know from the game: 

• Drake Maye has a fourth-quarter meltdown. The Patriots took a 10-0 lead with an Andres Borregales field goal in the third quarter, and at that point, it looked like they were going to coast to the win. Then Drake Maye had an all-time meltdown in the fourth quarter. The Patriots quarterback threw THREE interceptions in the final quarter, and Maye's final one was the most devastating. With the Seahawks leading 13-10 and just under 30 seconds left to play, the Patriots were facing a third-and-5 from Seattle's 16-yard line. If they don't convert, then they would have been able to send out Borregales for a potential game-tying field goal from 34 yards out. That didn't happen because Maye threw an interception that you just can't throw as an NFL quarterback. He basically heaved the ball into the end zone when he didn't need to, and Josh Jobe picked it off to seal Seattle's win (you can see the pick here).  With three picks on three consecutive drives, Maye became just the second quarterback over the past 26 years to throw an interception on three straight fourth-quarter drives in a game where the scoring margin was three points or less on each drive (Jared Dubin has a full breakdown of Maye's ugly performance, and you can check that out here). 
• Disastrous night for the Patriots. After Sam Darnold went down with an injury in the first quarter, this felt like it was New England's game to lose. And after they took a 10-0 lead in the third quarter, the Patriots felt like a lock. Instead, this ended up being an absolutely disastrous night for New England. For one, Maye got outplayed by Seahawks' backup QB Drew Lock, who didn't take a single first-team rep in practice this week. Lock threw for 187 yards and a TD with zero interceptions, while Maye threw for 178 yards with one TD and three interceptions. The Patriots also lost A.J. Brown to an ankle injury in the second half. New England was hoping Romeo Doubs could step up, but instead, he had what might go down as the worst drop of the season when he had a pass go right through his hands on a second-and-14 that would have gone for at least a 25-yard gain (you can see the play here). Maye's second interception came one play after the Doubs drop, so it was a double whammy. And there's also the Patriots' coaching staff. They got completely outclassed in the second half. Mike Vrabel's defense did a good job of shutting down the Seahawks offense for most of the game, but it couldn't stop Lock in the fourth quarter. The Seahawks' backup QB went 5 of 7 for 89 yards and a TD in the final quarter, which is a big reason why Seattle won. 
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba is still awesome. One reason Lock was so good in this game is that he did what any smart quarterback would do: He kept throwing the ball to his best playmaker. Lock threw 22 passes in the game, and 10 of those went to JSN, who finished with eight catches for 122 yards and a touchdown (JSN caught one pass from Sam Darnold for 13 yards, which is included in that total). The biggest play of the game came in the fourth quarter when JSN caught a 45-yard TD pass on FOURTH DOWN. JSN had 41 yards after the catch on the scoring play, and you can see him make the magic happen here. 
• Sam Darnold injury update. The Seahawks starting QB suffered an injury on Seattle's opening drive after being sacked by Dre'Mont Jones (see the play here). Darnold suffered a hip injury, and the good news for the Seahawks is that he didn't suffer a season-ending fracture, according to Mike MacDonald. Darnold is set to undergo an MRI on Thursday, and at that point, the team will have a better idea of how long Darnold might be out. Although Lock was impressive against the Patriots, the Seahawks may need to consider adding a quarterback if Darnold is out for an extended period.  
• A.J. Brown injury update. As we mentioned earlier, the Patriots' newest receiver had to leave the game after suffering an ankle injury in the second half (you can see the play here). According to NFL Network, Brown is dealing with a high ankle sprain, which usually takes a little longer to heal. There's no timeline for his injury yet, but it seems unlikely that he'll be on the field in Week 2, and it wouldn't be surprising if he's out for the rest of September. 

This was only one game, but based on what we saw, it's hard to imagine the Patriots getting back to the Super Bowl. Last year, they rode one of the easiest schedules in NFL history to the big game, but this year, things are going to be much tougher. As for the Seahawks, if Darnold is out for a month or longer, it will be difficult for them to defend their title.  

2. The Australia game is here: Picks and best bets for Rams vs. 49ers in Melbourne

The NFL's first regular-season game ever in Australia is finally here, and it kicks off Thursday at 8:35 p.m. ET, which is actually Friday morning in Melbourne. That's right, the game is being played in the future: The Rams and 49ers will be kicking off at 10:35 a.m. on Friday in Australia, so just to be safe, I'm going to set all my clocks to Australian time for the next 24 hours. 

Not only did both teams have to take a 16-hour flight to get to Melbourne, but they're also dealing with a 17-hour time difference. The biggest opponent for both teams this week might be jet lag, and they took totally opposite approaches when it comes to handling it. The 49ers arrived in Australia on Sept. 4, and they'll have been in Melbourne for an entire week by the time this game kicks off. As for the Rams, they landed in Australia on Thursday morning (local time), and by the time they leave, they'll have only spent about 30 hours in Melbourne (you can read more about each team's travel plan here).

This is a huge divisional showdown that's being played on the other side of the world, and the Rams are currently a 3.5-point favorite. Let's check out some keys to the game: 

• Why the 49ers can win: One name: Christian McCaffrey. The Rams improved their defense at almost every level this offseason. Their pass-rush got better with the addition of Myles Garrett. Their secondary got better with the addition of Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson, but if the 49ers can attack this defense in one spot, they're probably going to have to target the Rams' linebackers. The best way to do that is to throw the ball to Christian McCaffrey out of the backfield. Having George Kittle back in the lineup will also help, because, for the most part, the Rams' linebackers will likely be responsible for covering him. If McCaffrey has a huge game and if Kittle could add five or six catches and at least 70 receiving yards, then the 49ers should be in a good spot to pull off the upset. 
• Why the Rams can win: The 49ers had the worst pass-rush in the NFL last season. Myles Garrett racked up more sacks by himself (23) in 2025 than the 49ers did as a team (20). On paper, it doesn't seem like that pass rush has gotten much better, and if that's the case, Matthew Stafford could end up picking the 49ers' defense apart. With Davante Adams and Puka Nacua both 100% healthy, the reigning MVP could put up some huge passing numbers, and if that happens, it's hard to imagine the 49ers keeping up in a shootout against a revamped Rams' defense that now features Garrett. 

You can get a full preview of the game from Jared Dubin by clicking here. 

Although the Rams will have Garrett, they won't have Aaron Donald, who was ruled out earlier this week. As for the 49ers, Kittle and Nick Bosa will both be playing. Both players were on the injury report this week, but they've been cleared to play. 

If you're thinking about betting on the game, here are a couple of props I like:  

• ONE RECEIVING PROP I LIKE: Christian McCaffrey OVER 4.5 receptions(-106 at FanDuel): I mentioned earlier that if there's one mismatch the 49ers can exploit against the Rams' defense, it's the fact that Christian McCaffrey will likely be covered by a linebacker in the passing game. Kyle Shanahan is very aware of this, which is one reason why we saw the 49ers star go off against the Rams last season. McCaffrey had 16 total catches in two games against L.A. last year (eight in each game), and once again, I think we'll see Brock Purdy target McCaffrey early and often. 
• ONE KICKING PROP I LIKE: Eddy Pineiro OVER 1.5 field goals (-120 at BetMGM): There is no one who loves kicking field goals more than Kyle Shanahan, and that's especially true early in the season when his offense is still a little rusty. Last year, Pineiro hit at least two field goals in each of the 49ers' first SIX games. As a matter of fact, he averaged 2.8 field goals per game through the first six weeks, and I think he'll be right around that number once again to start 2026. 

Finally, if you're wondering who we're picking, here's who we have:

My pick: Rams 24-17 over 49ers
Pete Prisco's pick: Rams 28-27 over 49ers
Jared Dubin's pick: Rams 31-21 over 49ers
Jordan Dajani's pick: Rams 24-20 over 49ers
Tyler Sullivan: 49ers 27-24 over Rams

Over on our CBS Sports picks page, we have seven experts, and five of us are taking the Rams to win straight-up, but only four of us have them covering. You can see our picks for this game, along with all of our Week 1 picks, here. 

3. Super Bowl predictions: Everyone is on the Rams

I know the season has already started, but I'm going to pretend like it hasn't, and we're going to unveil our Super Bowl predictions. I finally got everyone here at CBS Sports to turn in their Super Bowl picks, and I can't let that go to waste. 

If there's one thing that won't surprise you about these predictions, it's that almost everyone is on the Rams. Out of our 15 experts, SIX of them have the Rams winning it all, which easily made them the most popular pick. Overall, SIX teams got at least one vote to win it all. 

Here are the teams that got at least one vote to win the Super Bowl, and I've also thrown in an explanation from one person who voted for that team. 

• Rams (6 votes). The Rams have the best roster, the best coach, two of the best defensive players of all time, an MVP-caliber quarterback, an excellent offensive line and a superstar wide receiver who can take over against even the best defenses. I get that there's pressure, but remember the Rams' Super Bowl-or-bust 2021 team? They won it all. I believe Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford will do it again. -- Zach Pereles
• Broncos (3 votes). They may have a Lombardi already if Bo Nix didn't break his ankle. Adding Jaylen Waddle easily fixes their biggest weakness from a season ago. -- Mike Renner
• Ravens (2 votes). The stars will align for the Ravens, who have 1-2 years left of MVP football from Lamar Jackson. Derrick Henry will still be a monster, and they will live up to expectations on the defensive side with the Jesse Minter hire, the addition of Trey Hendrickson and return of Nnamdi Madibuike. -- Doug Clawson
• Bengals (2 votes). Joe Burrow's MVP season culminates with a Lombardi Trophy. -- Jordan Dajani
• Bills (1 vote). Josh Allen has his WR1, the defense should be more aggressive under Jim Leonhard and they finally get over the hump with Joe Brady now the head coach. -- Ryan Wilson
• Jaguars (1 vote). The Jaguars are a better team than a year ago. They might not win as many games, but they will be better prepared for the playoffs this time around. -- Pete Prisco

We also made our division title predictions along with our Super Bowl picks, and if you want to know who we picked, you can see that here. The biggest reason you'll want to read our full set of picks is that someone went rogue and picked the Giants to win the NFC East. 

4. Predicting the NFL MVP and other award winners: Our writers make their picks 

Now that we've got our Super Bowl predictions out of the way, it's time to unveil our picks for every major award. We're going to make our predictions for MVP and Coach of the Year along with the Offensive and Defensive Rookies of the Year. 

We had 15 experts vote on each award, and here's what our final voting tally looked like: 

MVP
1. Joe Burrow (5 votes)
T-2. Lamar Jackson (2)
T-2. Josh Allen (2)

A total of nine players got at least one MVP vote, and if you want to see the full list, we've got that here. If Burrow does win, it would be his first career MVP. Burrow finished fourth in the MVP voting in both 2022 and 2024, but he's never won the award. 

COACH OF THE YEAR
T-1. Cowboys coach Brian Schottenheimer (2)
T-1. Jaguars coach Liam Coen (2)
T-1. Ravens coach Jesse Minter (2)
T-1. Bills coach Joe Brady (2)
Others receiving votes: Jets coach Aaron Glenn (1), Giants coach John Harbaugh (1), Saints coach Kellen Moore (1), Vikings coach Kevin O'Connell (1), Packers coach Matt LaFleur (1), Broncos coach Sean Payton (1)

OFFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
1. Cardinals RB Jeremiyah Love (7 votes)
2. 49ers WR De'Zhaun Stribling (4)
3. Seahawks RB Jadarian Price (2)
Others receiving votes: Titans WR Carnell Tate (1), Browns WR Denzel Boston (1)

DEFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR
T-1. Jets EDGE David Bailey (5 votes)
T-1. Buccaneers EDGE Rueben Bain Jr. (5)
3. Cowboys DB Caleb Downs (3)
Others receiving votes: Bengals EDGE Cashius Howell (1), Commanders LB Sonny Styles (1)

If you're wondering who I voted for, I picked Moore as my Coach of the Year, mostly because I think the Saints are going to win the NFC South. In the DROY category, I was the lone person who voted for Howell, and I'm extremely confident in my pick after nailing the DROY in 2024 with Jared Verse. In the OROY category, I took De'Zhaun Stribling. 

We also voted on all the other award winners — like offensive and defensive player of the year — and if you want to see who came out on top, you'll have to check out our full story here. 

5. NFL coaches on the hot seat: Zac Taylor under heavy pressure in Cincinnati 

We're only one game into the NFL season, but there are already plenty of coaches on the hot seat. So who has the hottest seat in the league right now? Glad you asked. Zach Pereles ranked the five coaches who are under the most pressure heading into the season. 

Here are the top three names on his list: 

1. Zac Taylor (Bengals). There are simply no more excuses. After all, as Joe Burrow said in May: "We have everything we need in that locker room. We just gotta go and make it happen." If this year isn't the year to return to the postseason — the drought is up to three years now — Taylor might not return, period.

2. Dan Quinn (Commanders). The 2026 season features a brutal start at the Eagles, at the Cowboys and against the Seahawks, and if Washington starts slowly, the heat will really turn up on Quinn. Quinn is betting big on offensive coordinator David Blough and defensive coordinator Daronte Jones — both first-time play callers — to elevate their respective units. It could be argued that a bounce-back year, even if it doesn't result in a playoff berth, would be enough for him to stay another season. But even that is no certainty.

3. Todd Bowles (Buccaneers). The Buccaneers feel like a team in transition. It's a good — not great — roster in a bad division. Anything less than a return to the playoffs and a much-improved defense would have Bowles feeling the heat.

If you want to know who else is on the hot seat, you can check out Zach's full list of coaches here. 

6. Extra points: Brock Bowers to miss multiple games

It's been a busy few days around the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything, I put together a quick roundup for you.

• Raiders star Brock Bowers out with a knee injury. The Raiders' tight end is expected to miss one or two games after undergoing a meniscus trim. This is an unfortunate start to the season for Bowers, who missed five games last season due to knee issues. If you want the full details on the injury, we've got that here. 
• Cam Jordan to miss Saints' opener. The Saints' 37-year-old star pass-rusher, who's dealing with a hamstring injury, won't be on the field for New Orleans' opener against the Lions. Jordan is heading into his 16th NFL season, and this will mark just the third time that he's missed a game due to injury. One good piece of news for the Saints is that Alvin Kamara was back on the field. The running back was expected to miss a month with a knee injury that he suffered in August, but he's back at practice. It seems there's a chance that he could play this week.
• Deshaun Watson cited for speeding in Cleveland. Watson's popularity in Cleveland isn't extremely high right now, and this probably isn't going to help. The Browns QB was cited for speeding on Aug. 26, but no one knew about it until yesterday when he entered a not guilty plea in court, according to Fox 8. Watson was cited for going 86 mph in a zone where the speed limit was 60. 
• NFL eyeing Japan for possible game. If everything in Australia works out, the NFL may start looking to put more games on that side of the world. NFL executive VP Peter O'Reilly was recently asked whether the league was considering any new locations for international games, and he only mentioned one: Japan. This year, the NFL is playing in Australia, Paris and Rio De Janeiro for the first time, and at some point in the near future, the league could soon be adding Japan. The NFL is also expected to play several more games in Australia.