Tories leapfrog Reform in poll for the second time this week

Reform UK has dropped to third place in the polls for the second time in a week after a More in Common survey found that Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives had leapfrogged Nigel Farage’s party.

The poll put the Conservatives in second on 24 per cent, four points behind Labour on 28 per cent and three points ahead of Reform UK.

Concerningly for Mr Farage, the same poll carried out a year ago put Reform UK in a comfortable lead on 33 per cent of the vote.

It is also the first time that the Tories have had a lead over Reform of three points or more since January 2025 – shortly after Ms Badenoch became leader in November 2024.

The More in Common poll follows one by YouGov on Tuesday which put Reform in third place on 21 per cent, behind the Tories on 23 per cent and Labour on 24 per cent.

The bounce for the Tories comes after what many saw as a strong party conference for them in Birmingham last week, where Ms Badenoch promised to reform inheritance tax and end the £100,000 earnings cap on childcare.

Luke Tryl, director of More in Common, noted: “The Conservatives seem to be enjoying a conference bounce as they jump to second in our voting intention.”

He added: “Ms Badenoch also hits an all time approval rating high, up 3 to +5. Burnham is down 5 to +11, Davey is down one to -11, Lowe remains steady at -15, (though less than half give a firm view on Davey/Lowe) Farage is down 2 to -26 and Polanski is down a lot 7 to -35 - his lowest for us.”

The findings come amid question marks over whether Mr Farage remains an asset to his party after a series of scandals over donations and business dealings have hit him personally and the party more broadly.

Mr Farage is awaiting the result of a standards investigation into whether he should have declared a £5 million personal gift from the billionaire crypto currency donor Christopher Harborne.

Meanwhile there are police investigations into Treasury spokesman Robert Jenrick and deputy leader Richard Tice as well as Mr Farage’s former chief of staff Dan Jukes and ex-policy chief James Orr.

Mr Tryl noted: “Burnham also leads on gross approval at 40 per cent. Badenoch’s gross approval is now at 35 per cent, followed by Farage at 26, Davey at 19 per cent, and Polanski and Lowe at 16 per cent.”

He went on: “The ‘Badenoch Bounce’ has two sources. Her approvals on the right have risen, rising from last year’s budget and hitting +62 with 2024 Conservative voters and +18 with Reform. Her approval rating with Liberal Democrats (-9) and Labour voters (-10) are also up and now relatively high for a Conservative leader.

“The Conservatives have hit their highest rating since March 2025, and the largest gap over Reform since January 2025 and are approaching 2024 election levels of support. Reform have also hit their joint lowest in 18 months at 21 per cent as the Greens plateau at their joint lowest since August 2025.”

The Blue Collar Conservatism movement, founded by Esther McVey, Sir Philip Davies and Clark Vasey, which seeks to win over working class support for the Tories, noted that there had been a shift in support away from Farage to Ms Badenoch.

They said: “In 2025 Reform spoke to a genuine voter anger. The challenge was good for democracy. Conservatives have addressed how they let people down & are building a strong agenda. Reform have failed to move from anger to anything coherent. Increasingly voters will vote for the future with Kemi, mot the past with Reform. Kemi is speaking directly to Reform voters. Much to do but the shift is happening.”