Farage pinned his fortunes to Trump – now it’s triggered his downfall

If there was a moment which illustrated how Nigel Farage has completely lost his political touch, it was when he appeared on his GB News show on Tuesday evening to proclaim: “I don't go with the consensus that Trump is going to get smashed.”

Within hours, the results were coming in for the US midterms with Donald Trump’s Republican Party suffering catastrophic – and almost unprecedented – levels of humiliation and defeat.

Even Republican strongholds like Kansas and Texas fell to the Democrats as they swept to big majorities in both the House and the Senate.

While Americans turned their back on “the Donald” and his war with Iran in their millions, his old mate Mr Farage was apparently still willing to stand up for him.

It was probably not a huge coincidence that polling in the UK has shown that the British public have fallen out of love with Reform UK, too.

The YouGov poll this week showed that two-party politics is back, except that it is the old contest of the Tories versus Labour. Mr Farage and Reform UK were in the also-rans column, heading down from the mid-30s a year ago to barely 20 per cent now.

So, why was Mr Farage so unwilling to say what everyone else could see was coming to President Trump and his party?

There was almost certainly an honourable reason for standing by his friend in the face of overwhelming odds.

But there was also a sense of desperately holding on to the dying populist message which really began dominating western politics in 2016 with the Brexit referendum and Trump’s first election.

If Trump’s 2024 election victory and Reform storming to a massive poll lead in 2025 was peak populism in the transatlantic relations, then 2026 seems to have been the year that voters saw it for the empty shell it is, based solely around personality cults.

Mr Farage’s comment shows a man whose desperation to stay relevant and in the political game had clouded his vision on political reality.

It is rare for Mr Farage to be so out of touch. His whole career has been based on being able to judge the political mood and manipulate it.

But he has pinned much of his fortunes to Trump’s success. The US president, in turn, has used him as a warm up act, a key ally and suggested him for jobs like Britain’s ambassador to the US.

Now Trump is probably facing impeachment hearings, with his vengeful opponents controlling the Capital. He is also facing two years of being mired in legal proceedings – with his power and influence largely gone.

Meanwhile, Mr Farage has lost his own trump card of being the best middle man for the UK and US at a time when his hardline immigration message is finding less of an audience and his own party’s scandals – and holes in policy – have left him badly exposed domestically.

Mr Farage may well have seen himself as some latter-day Sundance Kid coming out of cover for one last stand with Trump’s Butch Cassidy. But, politically speaking, they are – like the two cowboys – being gunned down.

Populism in the UK and US seems to be on the ebb with the fates of the two men whose faces have defined that brand of politics looking increasingly tarnished.

Meanwhile, Andy Burnham’s comments over using the midterm results to call on international leaders to unite on the cost of living shows the prime minister and others are moving on from the current occupant of the White House.

That is not to say it is completely dead. Both Trump and Farage have made comebacks before and there is always the chance that a new populist leader could pick up the mantle if the mainstream parties falter again.

But, for now, everyone who feared the UK might be Trumpified after the next election by a Farage-led government can breathe a sigh of relief – all while viewing the ruins of one of the most chaotic political projects in modern western democratic history.