Grocery price inflation edges up as shoppers lean on special offers

Grocery price inflation has edged up again as shoppers lean on special offers to keep their costs in check, figures show.

Supermarket prices are 2.5% higher than last year, up from 2.3% last month, data from Worldpanel by Numerator shows.

Spending on promotions over the last month was up by more than a quarter of a billion pounds compared with last year – with special offers remaining a key tool for shoppers looking to keep their grocery bills in check, or to make pricier items and larger packs more affordable, Worldpanel said.

Fraser McKevitt, head of retail and consumer insight at Worldpanel, said: “With the autumn Budget fast approaching, the cost of living continues to weigh heavily on the minds of shoppers. And the cost of filling up a car is only adding to the pressure on household budgets.

“More than half tell us they’re very or extremely worried about petrol prices, and almost one in three say it’s already taking a real toll on their finances.

“Until the Chancellor sets out his plans, we expect that caution to carry on showing up at the till, with shoppers leaning more heavily on promotions to keep their grocery spend under control.”

However, in some good news for households preparing for Halloween, like-for-like chocolate confectionery prices are 3% lower than a year ago.

Some 1.2 million households bought a pumpkin over the latest four weeks – an increase of 10% compared with the same time last year, while more than 250,000 households purchased a pumpkin spice coffee.

Mr McKevitt added: “Halloween and Christmas are two of the most important moments of the year for chocolate confectionery, so falling prices will be welcome news for shoppers and retailers alike.

“After the double digit increases of 2025, a 3% drop won’t fully reverse what consumers have paid in recent months, but it should help ease some of the pressure on household budgets as the festive season approaches.”

Lidl led in market share gains over the 12 weeks to October 4, climbing to 8.6% on the back of a 7.1% increase in sales driven by fruit, vegetables and wine.

Sales at online specialist Ocado increased by 12.4%, outpacing overall online sales at 5.5%.

Spending through the tills was 1% higher at Tesco and 1.3% higher at Sainsbury’s, with the two retailers holding 27.8% and 15.2% of the market respectively.

Asda’s share now stands at 11.5%, while Aldi now holds 10.5% of the market, with sales at the discounter up 0.4% year on year.

Beyond the supermarkets, grocery sales at M&S rose by 14.9%.