MLB offseason rumors and intel: What we're hearing as free agency begins

With players becoming free to sign with any team they choose today (free agency officially begins Monday at 5 p.m. ET), we asked our MLB reporters to open their notebooks with all of the intel they collected from execs, agents and other baseball insiders during the 2026 MLB postseason.

What is the early word on top free agent Tarik Skubal? Would the Tampa Bay Rays trade ace Drew Rasmussen on the heels of their World Series run? What will the New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs do after their playoff exits? And which other teams are generating the most buzz across the industry?

Here is what we're hearing as the hot stove ignites.

What are you hearing about Tarik Skubal as his free agency begins?

Jeff Passan: Skubal is far and away the best player in this class, and the expectation is he will sign before the Dec. 1 lockout. The two most obvious suitors are the two teams with the highest payrolls in baseball: The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets. There are bound to be others. The Chicago Cubs badly want Skubal. They also are skeptical that they will be willing to compete at the sort of dollars Skubal is expected to get -- well in excess of $300 million, potentially in the $400 million-plus range. With Michael King and Nick Pivetta being free agents, the San Diego Padres need a rotation anchor, and arguably the best pitcher in baseball would more than suffice.

Others will join the foray, at the very least showing interest and perhaps joining the bidding. Either way, coming off another excellent season, Skubal will set a new record for a starting pitcher contract. The only question is how big it will be.

Alden Gonzalez: All things being equal -- and by "all things" I, of course, mean "money" -- my sense is Skubal would love to return to the Dodgers. He truly seemed to relish his 2½ months in Los Angeles. He loved the culture, particularly being among so many established, veteran players who were singularly focused on winning. He became besties with Blake Snell, was awed by the organization's resources and, overall, seemed to fit in seamlessly. But it's going to come down to price. And whether the Dodgers would be willing to match Steve Cohen's Mets or any other suitors that materialize given the threat of a salary cap remains to be seen.

Which other free agents are generating the most early buzz?

Buster Olney: Skubal is a market of one -- I've had a couple of folks estimate he'll get something north of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, in a six- or seven-year deal, with the usual suspects bidding against each other -- but behind him is a range of good veteran starting pitchers who will come off the board before the lockout.

Michael King, Clay Holmes, Nick Martinez and Tyler Mahle are among the starters who probably will have offers to accept, if they choose to wrap up their negotiations in November, because they're all in line to have good short-term compensation that teams can absorb no matter what financial system is in place next year. The playoffs and World Series served as a one month-long advertisement for Martinez, because not only did he pitch well and take the ball on short rest, but so much was said about how his clubhouse presence was difference-making for the Rays.

Seiya Suzuki might have the most leverage of the position players to sign, given that he's a right-handed power bat in a market starved for players like him.

Jesse Rogers: There were a slew of starters who were moved at the deadline in need of new homes now that they're free agents. Rays star Freddy Peralta likely improved his position in the market more than anyone considering his performance in Tampa. The same could be said of Padres righty Michael King who pitched his best in the postseason as well.

Neither of those players can receive a qualifying offer, making them even more attractive to teams, and they headline a group of starters who should sign before a December lockout.

Who are the biggest trade candidates this offseason?

Olney: The trade market really won't gain clarity until after the next CBA is settled, except in a few isolated cases; I've heard Seattle is poking around to assess how its surplus in pitching might be used to add a bat. But generally, teams are going to be very wary of making trades without being able to attach appropriate value to the players proposed in deals -- and no one will be able to do that with confidence until they know what the financial system looks like.

Passan: At the top of the list is Tampa Bay ace Drew Rasmussen, whose $20 million salary would push the Rays' payroll above their 2026 level without making another move. Will their World Series run encourage ownership to push the payroll and keep Rasmussen around for another run, or is the ability to clean up in a trade too strong to turn down?

The Astros, under new GM Randy Flores, have to decide what to do with shortstop Jeremy Pena a year before he reaches free agency. Multiple candidates for the GM job had suggested a rebuild would be the best course of action. The Los Angeles Angels, after trading Jose Soriano at the deadline, still have left-hander Reid Detmers and shortstop Zach Neto -- and the new head of baseball operations there has a mess to clean up. Arizona could move Ketel Marte -- if he's willing to waive his no-trade clause. And while William Contreras isn't going anywhere even though he is nearing free agency, the World Series champion Brewers will at least listen on closer Trevor Megill.

What are you hearing the pending lockout could mean for the pace of offseason moves?

Jorge Castillo: The expectation is it's going to be 2021 all over again. Five years ago, the last few days of November were a frenzy as teams committed $1.9 billion to free agents before the previous collective bargaining agreement expired. Nine players signed nine-figure contracts, led by Corey Seager's 10-year, $325 million deal with the Texas Rangers.

While Tarik Skubal, the top free agent this winter, is expected to sign a deal north of that before the lockout, this free agent class isn't nearly as deep. Players are going to fly off the board anyway.

Gonzalez: Ditto on the amount of action, and, to emphasize: the perception among executives is that this is generally a very weak crop of free agents. Outside of Teruaki Sato, a 27-year-old Japanese third baseman who's expected to be posted in the coming days and could one day be a Triple Crown threat, it's slim pickings on offense.

Aside from Skubal, the best starting pitcher available might be Kaima Taira, a 5-foot-8 right-hander with a vast repertoire. The markets for Sato, Taira and fellow Japanese star Hiromi Itoh will dominate a lot of the conversation over these next few weeks. But there will be a lot of action around them.

Has a Rays-Brewers World Series impacted how teams are approaching the offseason?

Passan: Not really. The Rays and Brewers have been regarded as excellent organizations for the last decade. Getting to the World Series is validation, yes, but their approaches are well-known and have been for years. Teams with more resources aren't suddenly going to give away the advantage that accompanies higher payrolls simply because the Rays, Brewers and Cleveland Guardians found success with lower ones. If the demand for players who put the ball in play or are elite baserunners rise precipitously, sure, we'll entertain the idea that there's some sort of an effect. But we'll take the under.

Rogers: It's too early to tell, but there is some chatter about the way those teams put the ball in play having a ripple effect in the sport. If anything, they serve as a reminder that there is more than one way to win a game and the more diverse options you have at the plate or on the mound, the better. Winning without just slugging home runs has taken some notice around the league.

What are the Dodgers most likely to do in the offseason after being dethroned this postseason?

Gonzalez: Outside of a pursuit of Skubal and a restocking of their bullpen -- Alex Vesia and Evan Phillips are among their free agents, and the Dodgers will probably be interested in a reunion -- there might not be a whole lot. Even without Skubal, the Dodgers possess enviable pitching depth.

Their entire starting lineup is under contract. And though their front office will spend a lot of time debating the merits of a younger position-player group, that might ultimately happen internally -- with the likes of Josue De Paula, Alex Freeland and, when he recovers from elbow surgery, Dalton Rushing mixing in. Could a blockbuster deal for a young, controllable, upper-eschelon position player materialize? Certainly. But those are always difficult.

Olney: The postseason demonstrated that the Dodgers have to start thinking about reshaping their position player group, to get younger and more athletic. But that will be challenging, with so many of their veterans under contract. The most obvious trade candidate in their position player group is Teoscar Hernandez, because as he gets older and his defensive skills naturally decline, there is no out for him at the DH spot, with the presence of Shohei Ohtani.

After both seasons ended short of where they hoped, how are the two New York teams likely to approach the offseason?

Castillo: The Mets will be the more aggressive of the two clubs, and it starts with Tarik Skubal. They are considered the favorite to land the prize of this free agent class for two reasons: (A) there's a clear need for a top-tier starting pitcher, (B) they're one of the very few teams willing to pay top dollar for premier free agents.

The Yankees have a few decisions to make. Closer David Bednar is a free agent. They'll likely look for an upgrade at third base. Jazz Chisholm Jr. and Trent Grisham are as good as gone so they'll need to figure out center field and second base. But there are internal options for all those uncertainties.

The Yankees believe they have a championship contender with a few tweaks. The Mets, after missing the playoffs consecutive seasons, are still laying the foundation.

Passan: Both have work to do. The back end of the Yankees' bullpen is nearly empty, second and third base are unclear and while the Yankees have more offensive talent than most, finding spots for them leaves the team vulnerable defensively. The Yankees will be good again because of their starting pitching and star bats, but getting to a championship level will necessitate more.

The Mets just want to get back to the playoffs, and they've got a handful of pieces capable of getting them there. Signing Skubal would be a great place to start. Beyond that, they need significant bullpen help, another starting arm and two more productive bats to be able to say they're on the level of the Braves and Phillies, let alone the Marlins and Nationals, both of whom took steps forward in 2026.

Which other teams does the industry think could make a splash this winter?

Olney: The Cubs, Mariners and Padres -- flush with new owner cash -- and after the lockout, the Angels. The Cubs have a group of veterans in their lineup who are win-now players, like Alex Bregman, Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner and Michael Busch, and they need to match that by enhancing their pitching. The question with so many teams is whether or not their respective owners will green-light moves -- I've heard estimates of anywhere from 12 to 18 teams will be largely inclined to sit out November, but of course, that could change if front offices successfully lobby for adding payroll before the lockout.

Rogers: Almost by definition, the Cubs have to be active -- otherwise they won't be able to field a pitching staff. With several pitchers coming off injuries and a bunch of free agent arms, the Cubs need bodies. They'll entertain almost anyone which also means circling back to some of their own guys. Clay Holmes and David Peterson could be candidates for a return engagement. Some believe the Mariners will also do some reshaping of their roster after such a down year.