Umno’s empty vessels only making loud noises

Would it be naive to ask if Umno has regained its strength?

Did the party not win the two recent state elections — Johor and Negeri Sembilan — in style? Do these handsome victories not prove Umno is once again the “top dog”?

And then there is the party’s call for Parliament to be dissolved early. One would think Umno is brimming with confidence about its chances of reclaiming Putrajaya.

Unfortunately, these dares, including calling for the party to be removed from government, are nothing more than empty bravado.

The Malays have this saying: “tin kosong bunyinya kuat” (empty vessels make the most noise), and this maxim clearly applies to Umno.

My own cynicism about Umno’s newfound swagger boils down to six main questions.

One, how much of Umno’s success in Johor and Negeri Sembilan is truly due to the party’s own strength? PAS had, after all, clearly offered its backing to the party in both Johor and Negeri Sembilan.

There is also the matter of disenchanted Pakatan Harapan and DAP supporters who may have backed Barisan Nasional in protest.

In truth, we will never know how many PH and PAS supporters backed Umno out of genuine belief that it was the right choice, how many did so because they were instructed, and how many acted purely out of spite.

Will this trend continue and help Umno at the Melaka polls or at the 16th general election, especially now that PAS president Abdul Hadi Awang has openly called for the abolition of colonial-era laws that, he claims, prevent Islam from taking precedence?

Which brings me to my second question. Why is Umno hesitant about going solo in the impending Melaka election? If it were confident of its own strength, Umno would want to show it can win on its own merit.

Maybe Umno is not confident in its own capabilities after all. PAS has already shot down Umno’s proposal to hold elections in Terengganu, while Umno is now looking to discuss a collaboration with Kedah menteri besar Sanusi Nor in the hope of securing a few seats.

Clearly, Umno does not have the upper hand in its dealings with PAS.

My third question: what will happen to Umno now that it is implicated in the two new controversies — Tabung Haji and Felda? I remember Perikatan Nasional supporters mocking an Umno candidate at the last general election, even labelling him a thief!

Will PH now ridicule Umno-BN candidates the same way? Will PAS still want to partner Umno and be saddled with all its baggage?

Mind you, Umno president Ahmad Zahid Hamidi isn’t out of the woods yet in the Yayasan Akalbudi case. An unfavourable court ruling could create chaos in Umno and make them an unappealing partner.

Fourth, what will happen to Umno if it is deemed to be the traitor in the Negeri Sembilan royal crisis? The party has given itself sufficient rope for political suicide by affirming Tuanku Muhriz Tuanku Munawir’s removal as the state’s ruler.

PAS knows full well that the Malays do not take kindly to acts of betrayal against the palace, and will surely reconsider its pact with Umno if the party is branded a traitor.

Why hasn’t Umno pulled out of the unity government? That is the fifth question.

If the party feels that support has returned to its fold, it should quit the unity government now instead of challenging Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim to remove them.

Yet, despite multiple veiled swipes at Anwar, Umno has consistently reiterated its intention to see out the full parliamentary term in the unity government.

Here, Umno is too afraid to make the first move and is hoping to be seen as a victim of the prime minister’s “cruelty”.

Sixth, Umno would likely lose its appeal to PAS if it leaves government before a general election is called.

PAS, for its part, tends to be drawn to parties with money and power.

When Najib Razak was prime minister, PAS cozied up to Umno. When Muhyiddin Yassin came to power, PAS turned to Bersatu. And when Bersatu’s accounts were frozen, PAS had no qualms about returning to Umno.

In the same way, PAS is likely to abandon Umno in the blink of an eye if Umno is no longer in government.

I am not likely to cast my vote for Umno. Would anyone?

The views expressed are those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect those of FMT.

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