The MND Sheinbaum Index™ for August 2026: Security, employment weigh on president’s performance

Welcome to the sixth edition of the MND Sheinbaum Index™, an eight-pillar index designed to give our readers balanced, data-driven insight into the current situation in Mexico across a range of areas under the leadership of President Claudia Sheinbaum.

In this edition of the index — which mainly uses data from the month of August — the headline number is 67.9, representing a decline of 1.4 points compared to the previous score. Despite the decline, this is the second-highest MND Sheinbaum Index™ to date. A detailed summary of the latest results appears below.

The publication of this MND Sheinbaum Index™ score comes six days after Sheinbaum celebrated the second anniversary of being sworn in as president. She now has four years remaining in her six-year term.

Before we look in detail at the latest results and consider the index trend in recent months, here is a short guide to the significance of an MND Sheinbaum Index™ score:

• 85–100: Exceptional — administration performing at a high level across nearly all indicators.
• 75–84: Excellent — administration performing well across most indicators.
• 60–75: Quite good, but room for improvement — meaningful strengths, some areas of concern.
• 50–60: Mixed — passing marks overall.
• Below 50: Broad underperformance — more indicators below benchmark than above.

MND Sheinbaum Index™ pillars for August 2026

Each pillar is given a stoplight color indicating a strong performance (green: a score above 9.4 out of 12.5), an average performance (yellow: 6.2-9.4) or a poor performance (red: below 6.2).

An upward-pointing arrow ⬆️ indicates that the pillar score improved compared to July. A downward-pointing arrow ⬇️ indicates a deterioration in the pillar score. A pause icon ⏸️ means there was no change in the pillar score compared to the previous month.

As you’ll see below, scores for four of the eight pillars declined in August compared to July. The score for just one pillar improved, while the scores for three pillars were unchanged.

🟢 ⬇️ INFLATION (11.85 out of 12.5)

In August, the inflation pillar was the top contributor to the overall index score for a fourth consecutive month, even though the score declined compared to July.

Mexico’s annual headline inflation rate rose to 3.26% in August, up from 3.12% in July but still quite close to the Bank of Mexico’s 3% target.

The inflation pillar score consequently declined to 11.85 in August from 12.2 in July.

🟢 ⏸️ LABOR POVERTY (10.25 out of 12.5)

There is no change to the labor poverty pillar score in this edition of the MND Sheinbaum Index™ as the most recent data remains that published by the national statistics agency INEGI on Aug. 26.

Based on that data, the labor poverty pillar score is 10.25.

The labor poverty rate was 31.9% in the second quarter of 2026, an annual decline of 3.2 percentage points.

In the second quarter of 2026, real incomes rose 8% annually.

For a fourth consecutive month, this pillar was the second biggest contributor to the overall index score.

🟡 ⬇️ SECURITY (9.37 out of 12.5)

The pace of homicide reduction declined in August for the first time since April. The year-over-year decline in homicides was 32.1% in August, per data presented at Sheinbaum’s Sept. 8 press conference, down from a 34.8% reduction in July.

The security pillar score consequently declined to 9.37 from 9.84 in July.

A perfect score requires a 50% year-over-year decline in homicides.

🟡 ⬇️ ECONOMIC GROWTH (8.75 out of 12.5)

Year-over-year economic growth in August was 2.5%, according to preliminary data from INEGI — a slight decline from July’s 2.7% reading.

(Annual economic growth in July was subsequently upgraded to 3.3% in revised final data.)

The economic growth pillar score declined to 8.75 in August from 9.25 in July.

🟡 ⏸️ APPROVAL RATING (8.56 out of 12.5) 

Sheinbaum’s average approval rating was 68.5% in August, unchanged from July. Thus, the approval rating pillar score remained at 8.56.

Per El Financiero’s August poll, Sheinbaum’s approval rating was 68%, an increase of one point compared to July.

As there was no new QM Estudios de Opinión/Heraldo Media Group survey in August, we used the approval rating detected by the Enkoll/El País/W Radio poll. The president has a 69% approval rating, according to that poll, which was conducted between Aug. 25 and 29.

🟡 ⬆️ TOURISM (7.16 out of 12.5 — This pillar has a one-month lag)

International arrivals increased 2.9% year-over-year in July, the data period used for this index, up from 2.1% growth in June.

Thus, the tourism pillar score rose to 7.16 from 6.91 a month earlier.

🟡 ⬇️ EMPLOYMENT (6.63 out of 12.5)

Mexico’s unemployment rate was 3% in August, on par with the 3% neutral benchmark, but up 0.1 percentage points from July.

The informality rate rose 0.2 percentage points year-over-year in August, up from an increase of 0.1 percentage points in July. Mexico’s informality rate in August, at 55%, remained very high.

The slight increase in the unemployment rate and the larger year-over-year change in the informality rate meant that the scores for both components of this pillar declined in August.

The overall score of 6.63 is 0.37 percentage points below the score for July.

🔴 ⏸️ BUSINESS CONFIDENCE (5.33 out of 12.5)

Mexico’s business confidence score, as measured by a monthly INEGI survey, was 48.2 in August, unchanged from July. That score is below the neutral benchmark of 50. In late 2024, when Sheinbaum was at the start of her six-year term, the business confidence score was around 52.

In August, the score for the foreign direct investment component of the pillar remained steady as the most recent data was once again that published by the Economy Ministry on Aug. 24.

According to that data, FDI in Mexico in the first six months of 2026 increased 2.1% annually, a much slower pace of growth compared with the 10.4% year-over-year gain in the first quarter of the year.

With no changes to the scores for the two components of the business confidence pillar, the overall score remained unchanged at 5.33.

The MND Sheinbaum Index™ trend 

In the graph below, you can see how the MND Sheinbaum Index™ score has changed over time.

We have now calculated a total of 11 index scores in the period between September 2024 (the final month of Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s presidency) and August 2026. The difference between the lowest score (54.5 in March 2025 — predating the publication of the first MND Sheinbaum Index™ article) and the highest (69.3 in July 2026) is 14.8 points.

The month-over-month decline in the score in August is the first since April after increases in each of May, June and July.

What to watch

The next MND Sheinbaum Index™ will focus on the month of September.

Here are three things to look out for in the September Index:

• Inflation: Data for the first half of September indicates that the score for the inflation pillar will decline again in the next edition of the index. INEGI reported on Sept. 24 that the annual headline rate was 3.42% in the first 15 days of September, up from 3.26% in August.
• Business Confidence: The score for this pillar will increase in the next edition of the MND Sheinbaum Index™ as Mexico’s business confidence score rose in September compared to August. A trade deal between Mexico and the United States — officials are said to be aiming to reach one before the U.S. midterms in early November — could lead to an additional increase in business confidence later in 2026.
• Economic growth: Sheinbaum predicted that economic growth would pick up in the second half of 2026 and so far she has been correct. Will data show that the momentum continued in September?

Mexico News Daily

* MND acknowledges that President Sheinbaum does not directly control outcomes in all eight pillars. For example, global commodity prices and tariff decisions in Washington can affect Mexico’s inflation and growth rates. The Index measures what is happening in Mexico on Sheinbaum’s watch.