Steinmeier in China: A major state visit in uncertain times

Eight years have passed since Frank-Walter Steinmeier's last trip to China. Since then, the relationship between China and Europe has changed significantly. The German president plans to spend several days touring China before concluding his visit in Beijing, where he will meet with China's leaders.

His visit comes just as the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee is convening for its plenary session, a major annual event that foreign dignitaries usually avoid when timing their visits.

The focus of the president's five-day trip will be "Germany's diverse and complex relations with China, as well as the challenges involved," his office said in a statement. In addition to sites of cultural exchange, the itinerary will also include a visit to a Volkswagen plant in Hefei.

A diplomatic balancing act

The automotive industry, in particular, illustrates the dilemma facing Germany's China policy. China is one of the most important markets for German automotive and machinery manufacturers, as well as for the chemical industry. At the same time, state-supported overcapacity in China is putting pressure on European manufacturers.

Not only that, Germany and Europe are dependent on China for raw materials and technologies, which means they are increasingly seeking out alternative partnerships.

Steinmeier was once an advocate of the policy of "change through trade" — the idea that other countires could be persuaded to become more democratic with the leverage of global trade, now considered something of a failure.

Now he must now pursue a tougher European line in Beijing. Caught between partnership and competition, Europe leaders recently managed to reach an agreement: Imports of plug-in hybrid vehicles from China are to be scaled back.

"That was a concrete step, but it can only be the beginning," said Michael Laha, an expert on China at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP) in Berlin.

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Chancellor and president both in Asia

Coinciding with Steinmeier's state visit to China, Chancellor Friedrich Merz is traveling to the Indo-Pacific with business representatives. His visit to Japan, Singapore, and South Korea will focus on competitiveness, technological upheavals, defense cooperation, and critical raw materials. Merz is visiting companies and attending important regional economic conferences in Tokyo and Seoul.

The dual trips are Berlin's attempt to send a twofold message: While the chancellor is "deliberately strengthening Germany's partnerships in the Indo-Pacific at a time of global upheaval," says Laha, the president is seeking dialogue with Beijing at a time when Germany and Europe are recalibrating their relationship with China. 

"This joint trip sends a very well-coordinated message to the Chinese that we remain committed to the partnership but at the same time are taking steps to reduce risk," said Laha, before adding that this is a difficult balancing act that also allows China to save face.

Little room for human rights

While Merz will be accompanied by a large economic delegation, Steinmeier will be traveling to China with representatives from German culture, politics, and academia. Mikko Huotari, director of the China Institute MERICS, is also expected to be part of the delegation — even though Beijing has imposed sanctions on the institute. "The fact that he is coming along sends a clear message to the Chinese side that we do not approve of the sanctions," said Laha.

In 2021, the EU imposed sanctions against several Chinese party and regional officials, as well as an organization accused of serious human rights violations and oppressing the Uyghur minority. It was the first time such sanctions had been imposed on China since the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989, and Beijing did not take kindly to them: In response, the Chinese government imposed entry bans and other sanctions against European politicians, scholars, and institutions, including MERICS.

Laha does not expect human rights to play a major role in the German president's trip. Steinmeier is considered a pragmatist when it comes to China policy. As foreign minister, he distanced himself from his predecessor Joschka Fischer, a critic of China, and even criticized Chancellor Angela Merkel when she hosted the Dalai Lama.

China should assume international responsibility

On the subject of Ukraine, Steinmeier is likely to be more direct and raise the issue of China's role in the conflict. "Beijing is clearly on Moscow's side," said Laha. In Berlin, however, officials are convinced that China can do more to persuade Russia to engage in serious negotiations and find a solution to the conflict.

Steinmeier may make this clear in his speech at Peking University on Thursday. Germany has "long viewed China's emergence with respect and goodwill," reads a statement from the president's office. Today, however, the focus is less on China's continued rise and more on how it uses its growing power.

"If the president points out that Russia used its power to attack a sovereign state, he could be alluding to another regional connection: Taiwan," says Laha. That could be seen as an appeal to Beijing to assume more responsibility for the regional and international order.

To conclude his visit, Steinmeier will meet with China's leadership in Beijing. Talks are planned with President Xi Jinping, whom he has known for nearly two decades, as well as with Premier Li Qiang and the chairman of the National People's Congress, Zhao Leji. 

The trip marks the culmination of Steinmeier's focus on Asia during his second term in office. Since then, he has deliberately sought to forge close ties with partners in the region and has advocated for greater diversification. Now China – the most important and most challenging partner – will come to its own conclusion.