The big intrigue that’s looming for Brownlow night

“Ladies and gentlemen, please put your hands together for this year’s Brownlow medallist … Nick Daicos.”

Those are the words you will almost certainly hear on Monday night.

Perhaps the biggest question now is – at what stage of the count will the Collingwood star be confirmed as a first-time medallist?

Will Daicos reach the unbeatable stage at round 20, still with a month of votes to be counted? Or will the 23-year-old dynamo, the hottest of hot favourites, have to endure a nervous flutter or two in the final few rounds? In either case, it will be Daicos on the podium with a glass of champers not long after, and almost certainly with a winning total in the 40s.

Daicos was, unsurprisingly the pre-season Brownlow favourite. After polling 28, 38 and 32 votes in the past three seasons, he was the obvious pick. Those tallies have given him two second-placed finishes (behind Matt Rowell and Patrick Cripps in 2025 and 2024 respectively). In 2023 he was probably the most unlucky, finishing only three votes adrift of winner Lachie Neale as he took the competition by storm for the first time but injury impacted his finish to the home-and-away season.

The other great question surrounding Daicos is exactly how many votes he will accrue. Cripps’ ridiculous and record-breaking season two years ago (45 votes – eight ahead of Daicos) could easily be toppled. Getting to the 50-vote mark is not outside the realm of possibility.

Amid the Brownlow prognostications and permutations, Daicos is variously tipped to finish with anywhere between 38 and 52 votes. A readjustment of votes from The Age footballer of the year award (where five players are given a score out of 10 each game), has Daicos reaching 43 votes. The AFL website’s Brownlow predictor lands on Daicos with 47 votes, with the next player a whopping 13 behind. You get the drift – it’s simply Daicos’ to lose.

Thus, the other intrigue on Monday night is the chase for second spot. Who should you lean towards? Daylight might be the best answer.

The biggest victim of the Daicos juggernaut is fellow vote-magnet Marcus Bontempelli. At age 30 and surely with seasons of footy still to come, “the Bont” is tracking to become the greatest Brownlow vote-winner in history. The Bulldog is likely to reach third spot on the table (behind Gary Ablett jnr and Patrick Dangerfield) this year. Nothing is guaranteed in footy, and perennial contender Bontempelli might never win Charlie.

A significant change to the Brownlow happened this year as the AFL allowed umpires to access statistics upon request. The league is trying to avoid perceived voting blunders by tinkering with the system. In deciding on the 3-2-1 votes for each match, the umpires can now ask for stats in 16 categories to help their judgment.

Eagle-eyed Brownlow followers will try to assess how this affects voting patterns. The change might mean there’s less chance of a “bolt-from-the-blue” winner, such as West Coast’s Matt Priddis in 2014 or even Rowell last year.

“With the new voting model, which allows umpires to review the post-game statistics, we forecast that the Brownlow will now heavily skew towards favourites in the future. This may make winners like Matt Rowell, who was $17 last year, more unlikely,” says TAB’s senior AFL trader Bart Kennett.

Time will tell what it means for the Brownlow long-term. But, don’t worry, you’ll still hear “N. Daicos, three votes” many times on Monday night.

Come back on Sunday to see our experts’ predictions and the full season form guide for the Brownlow favourites.