Warnings for Chiang’s campaign

In Taipei’s political landscape, Daan (大安), Wenshan (文山), Songshan (松山), Xinyi (信義), Neihu (內湖) and Nangang (南港) districts have long been regarded as Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) strongholds. However, recent polls suggest that Taipei Mayor Chiang Wan-an’s (蔣萬安) lead in these traditional bastions has narrowed considerably, with his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) rival, Legislator Puma Shen (沈伯洋), even overtaking him in certain areas. The weakening of these defensive lines reflects a combination of governance performance issues, disconnect with voters, a self-siloing campaign strategy and structural shifts in the electorate.

First is the crisis of municipal performance and deficit of public trust. Food safety incidents in Taipei schools have damaged public confidence in the city government, alongside controversies over tree felling, the “rat plague,” the Taipei Dome incident, severe flooding and issues with the eastern extension of the Taipei Metro’s Tamsui-Xinyi Line.

As Lao Tzu (老子) wrote in the Taoist classic Tao Te Ching (道德經), “governing a great nation is like cooking a small fish” — mishandling a situation can very quickly go awry and lead to a breakdown of trust.

Chiang’s sudden proposal to remove Taipei International Airport (Songshan airport) to build an artificial intelligence park also left many doubting the weight behind such grand promises. Public policy theory warns that proposals without feasibility analyses can fall into the trap of symbolism without substance.

The strategy missteps have alienated voters beyond immediate supporters, and the negative attacks seem to have backfired. Faced with a challenger, Chiang has chosen to avoid open debate and instead retreated to media outlets within his own political echo chamber, appearing like a script-reading machine.

In the “Light and Darkness” (Ming An, 明暗) chapter of the political treatise “Comments of a Recluse” (Qianfu Lun, 潛夫論), the Eastern Han Dynasty scholar Wang Fu (王符) wrote: “Listen to both sides and you will be enlightened; heed only one side and you will be left in the dark.” For Chiang, excessive reliance on home-turf media have undermined dialogue with centrist voters.

Meanwhile, decontextualized smear attacks on his rival have sparked protests from medical professionals and social workers. Issue management theory suggests that baseless attacks can easily lead to those same fear-appeals backfiring on the messenger.

Second is Chiang’s disconnect with grassroots voters. Chiang’s cultivated image as one of the political elite only adds to the impression of him being out of touch, such as when he was gifted a ceremonial stalk of sugarcane during a temple ceremony and subsequently discarded on the roadside, drawing criticism for lacking basic social etiquette. As the military strategy treatise Wei Liaozi (尉繚子), written during the Warring States Period, states: “He who cannot win people’s hearts can never win their strength.” By contrast, Chiang’s opponent has been making soapbox speeches, handing out pamphlets, canvassing night markets and using digital tools to project a more down-to-earth image, highlighting their differences even further.

Finally is the loss of votes from centrist and former third-party candidate supporters.

Strategic management theory suggests that those without a competitive edge are eventually sidelined. Polling data indicate that of the 340,000 votes cast for former independent Taipei mayoral candidate Vivian Huang (黃珊珊) in 2022, as many as 53 percent have shifted to Shen, while only 39 percent favor Chiang. His lead among voters aged 20 to 49 and centrist voters has also fallen sharply, cutting his advantage in traditional strongholds by half. As the Chinese philosopher Mencius (孟子) wrote: “A just cause wins support, while an unjust one loses it.” With younger and more educated voters seeing support for Shen as an embrace of innovation, this structural shift might prove hard to reverse.

The weakening of Chiang’s traditional electoral strongholds reflects a dual crisis in municipal governance and campaign strategy. If the incumbent continues to rely on image management, avoids discussing municipal affairs and retreats into an echo chamber, he must ultimately face the public’s verdict. Only by returning to substantive achievements, engaging directly with public concerns and demonstrating a genuine grassroots commitment can he solve the crisis of trust.