Team USA vs. France prediction, preview: What to know about World Cup final as USA seeks fifth straight gold

France almost took down USA in the Paris Olympics, and will look to finish the job in Berlin

Sep 12, 2026 at 6:33 pm ET • 4 min read

The final for the 2026 FIBA Women's World Cup is set. As expected, it will be Team USA versus France in a rematch of the gold medal game at the 2024 Olympics in Paris. The Americans were pushed to the limit in that game and escaped with a one-point win when Gabby Williams' shot at the buzzer went in, but was ruled a two-pointer because her foot was on the line. 

Williams and France have been on a roll in Berlin. Against the hosts Germany in the semifinals on Saturday, Williams put up 22 points, five rebounds, five assists and four steals to continue a stellar tournament that has her in line to potentially win MVP regardless of Sunday's result. 

Other French standouts include New York Liberty guard Marine Johannès, Connecticut Sun guard Leïla Lacan and Williams' Golden State Valkyries teammate Janelle Salaün. In fact, France's roster features eight current WNBA players. The French are a perfect 5-0 in the tournament, and have won their games by an average of 35.6 points. France leads the tournament in scoring (96.2 points per game), field goal percentage (51.6%), 3-point percentage (44.2%), 3-point field goals (73) and steals per game (13.2). 

Team USA has not consistently reached the same level as France in the World Cup, but is also a perfect 5-0 and has the most talented roster in the world. Will the Americans win a fifth conscutive World Cup title and tie the Soviet Union's record of five straight titles from 1959-75? Or will France pull off a historic upset and win their first ever World Cup title? 

Where to watch USA vs. France

Date: Sunday, Sept. 13 | Time: 2 p.m. ET
Location: Berlin Arena -- Berlin, Germany
TV: TNT | Live stream: HBO Max
Odds (via FanDuel): Team USA -7.5 | O/U: 156.5

Predictions

Lindsay Gibbs: USA 82, France 74

The match we have been waiting for has arrived, and I've gone back and forth on my prediction about a million times. Both teams looked tight at times in their semis, but pulled away comfortably late in the fourth quarter - albeit France more so than Team USA, defeating Germany by 22 points in the end. Gabby Williams, in particular, was absolutely sensational for Les Bleues.

Make no mistake about it, this French team is capable of beating the United States. If this was the WNBA Finals, I would not be picking a sweep. But alas, it is not. Ultimately, this edition of Team USA is just too deep up and down the roster to be toppled, and while the Americans have looked far from perfect in Berlin, they've found a way. I think the USA team that eventually loses on the world stage will have an air of superiority and entitlement to them. This team seems to have a desperation to preserve the legacy, and while that pressure can be overwhelming, it is also centering.

There are too many talented players on both rosters for me to point out one or two as the keys to the game. Instead, I'll boil it down to two basic statistics: turnovers and rebounds. In the semis, France won the turnover battle 24-7 and had 29 points off turnovers, compared to Germany's eight. The United States, meanwhile, tied Spain with 15 turnovers and 15 points off of turnovers each. France's wings are going to get steals; Team USA just needs to make sure it keeps things even on that front. Meanwhile, the Americans have to control the boards. France was actually out-rebounded by Germany 41-31. Although the host nation didn't have the offensive firepower to make the most of that advantage, if the United States can mirror that rebounding margin, they'll be in fantastic shape.

Jack Maloney: USA wins, but France covers 

France has been the best team in Berlin. Les Bleues have won every game by at least 22 points and are operating on a tremendous level on both ends of the floor. Williams, who has been the best individual player in the tournament, is even better in a French uniform than she is in a Valkyries one, and she has plenty of help alongside her. Unlike other countries, France has an entire rotation worth of WNBA players. 

Not only does France have the talent and depth to pull off an upset, they have plenty of motivation after falling just short against Team USA in Paris. France has never won a World Cup, and hasn't won a major international tournament since EuroBasket Women 2009. 

All that being said, France has not played anyone even close to Team USA's level in Berlin. As shaky as Team USA has been at times offensively, its defense has been lights out. No opponent has scored more than 66 points, none have shot better than 37.9% against Team USA, and all five of them have turned the ball over at least 15 times. 

Opponent	Points	FG%	Turnovers
China	61	32.3%	16
Italy	52	31%	18
Czechia	64	32.8%	16
Hungary	56	34.4%	27
Spain	66	37.9%	15

The rosters obviously aren't exactly the same as they were in Paris two summers ago, but in the gold medal game France scored 66 points on 32% shooting and committed 14 turnovers. France should be able to keep this game close, but Team USA's defense will ultimately be the difference-maker and help the Americans win a fifth consecutive World Cup title.