EDITORIAL: US’ growing Indo-Pacific presence

On Tuesday last week, US Army General Ronald Clark in a conference in Honolulu said the US Army has prepared the Indo-Pacific theater for a potential Chinese invasion next year, showing that Washington’s Indo-Pacific and First Island Chain warfare strategy is focusing on a possible Taiwan-China conflict.

In 2021, then-US Indo-Pacific commander Admiral Philip Davidson warned that China would develop sufficient capability and possibly the intent to seize Taiwan by military force by next year. The so-called “Davidson window” has been incorporated in the US’ defense planning and the US-China strategic wrestling.

Although a growing number of experts believe that China is unlikely to launch a full-scale invasion of Taiwan in the near future due to its political and economic instability, Beijing has been escalating its “gray zone” activities along the First Island Chain. China is expanding the operational range of its maritime vessels, including carriers and submarines — some of which are equipped with ballistic missiles — in waters east of Taiwan and the western Pacific Ocean.

Clark said the “Davidson window” is still valid, and the US Army is preparing for a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan as early as next year.

“We’ve embarked upon a strategic approach to setting the theater that we refer to as ‘Army Ready Forward,’ which involves positioning equipment, materiel and personnel on a rotational basis west of the International Date Line on the island chains closest to China,” he said. “The goal is to be ready by April 2, 2027.”

Clark’s remark came after the US Army last month released its “How the army fights” operational warfighting guidance, which identified the Chinese People’s Liberation Army as a “pacing threat” capable of disrupting reinforcements from the US.

The US has forces stationed in Asia, with prepositioned stockpiles, and coordinated bases, ports and airfields in First Island Chain nations, such as Japan and the Philippines, to enable US forces to act from the first day of a conflict, it said.

While the administration of US President Donald Trump is stuck in trade disputes, and the Russia-Ukraine and US-Iran wars have fueled concerns about whether Washington could maintain capability and engagement in the Indo-Pacific region, the US’ recent military deployments in the region would provide deterrence and ensure regional stability.

Although Washington maintains “strategic ambiguity” when it comes to Taiwan, US Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Elbridge Colby has constantly cited the “US National Security Strategy” and reiterated that “the US is looking to build up a strong denial defense along the First Island Chain. And it is working with allies and partners to make that happen.”

The US Army’s Eighth Corps during a joint military exercise with South Korea in August said the drill demonstrated the two countries’ ability to rapidly project combat power and control key geographical locations within the First Island Chain. The statement gained attention, as it showed a shift from Korean Peninsula-focused deterrence to a broader regional role.

During the US-Japan-Philippines joint military exercise last month, the US Marine Corps for the first time deployed the Navy-Marine Expeditionary Ship Interdiction System — uncrewed anti-ship missile launchers — to Japan’s Yonaguni Island, which is about 110km from Taiwan.

At an ASEAN meeting last week, US and Japanese defense ministers agreed to jointly produce advanced air-to-air missiles and bolster defense cooperation along the First Island Chain.

“We shared a sense of crisis, and agreed to strengthen the deterrence and response capability of the US-Japan alliance with greater speed and intensity than ever before,” Japanese Minister of Defense Shinjiro Koizumi said.

There are also discussions that the US might help Japan acquire nuclear-powered submarines, which would give Tokyo a bigger role in containing China’s naval expansion.

The US has also increased its military presence in the Philippines. It has invested more than US$300 million to upgrade military bases and airports, deployed new anti-ship missiles to the Batanes Islands — which are approximately 160km from Taiwan — and increased joint exercises this year.

As for the Second Island Chain, the US is establishing fortified fuel and ammunition outposts in Pacific islands such as Guam and Palau to support operations and forces in the First Island Chain.

These efforts are not just for Taiwan’s security; they are vital to regional stability and the prosperity of the US and its allies, and signal to China that a conflict in the Taiwan Strait and the First Island Chain will come at a great cost.