Bills vs. Texans prediction, odds, time: 2026 NFL Week 1 game picks by proven model
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SportsLine's projection model has revealed its Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans picks for the 2026 NFL Week 1 game on CBS and Paramount+
• 2 min read
Josh Allen walks into his personal house of horrors Sunday when the Bills open at Houston. He's 0-4 in that building, sacked eight times in last year's 23-19 loss, and now he does it with first-year coach Joe Brady on the headset and star acquisition DJ Moore catching passes. The game is on CBS and Paramount+ as Houston QB C.J. Stroud and coach DeMeco Ryans counter with one of the NFL's nastiest defensive fronts, paced by Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, plus a blanketing secondary. Claim the latest Polymarket promo code CBSSPORTS to get a $50 bonus after $10 in trades:
Kickoff is at 1 p.m. ET from Reliant Stadium in Houston. Buffalo is a 1.5-point favorite in the latest Bills vs. Texans odds, while the over/under is 44.5 points. Before making any Bills vs. Texans picks, check out the Texans vs. Bills predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on betting sites on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2026 NFL season on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024. Anybody following its picks at NFL betting sites could have seen strong returns.
Now, the model has zeroed in on Bills vs. Texans. You can head to SportsLine now to see its picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Texans vs. Bills:
Bills vs. Texans spread | Bills -1.5 |
Bills vs. Texans over/under | 44.5 points |
Bills vs. Texans money line | Bills -118, Texans -101 |
Bills vs. Texans picks | |
Bills vs. Texans streaming |
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Top Bills vs. Texans predictions
After 10,000 simulations of Bills vs. Texans, the model is going Over 44.5 combined points at betting apps. Reliant has been a house of horrors for Allen, who is 0-4 including one game that ended in injury, another in a playoff defeat, another with his career-worst completion percentage and one where he was sacked a career-high eight times.
Still, we know what Allen is capable of, and they Bills added DJ Moore to be a reliable weapon in the pass game. Stroud has something to prove after a mostly-dreadful 2025 season. Their weaponry should be healthy and poised for a bounce-back.
The projection model has Bills RB James Cook making a presence with 83 rushing yards, while Stroud connects with Nico Collens for 69 receiving yards. SportsLine's model projects 46 combined points between the Bills and Texans. See which team to back at SportsLine.
How to make Bills vs. Texans picks
In addition to going Over on the total, the model also says one side of the spread hits well over 60% of the time. See what it is at SportsLine.
Who wins Texans vs. Bills, and which side of the spread hits in well over 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Bills vs. Texans spread you need to jump, all from the model that is 53-37 on top-rated picks since 2024, and find out.
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