Our NFL Week 5 crystal ball: Five analysts make predictions, from upsets to TD scorers
Matt Bowen
,
Matt Bowen
ESPN Writer
- Matt Bowen is a fantasy football and NFL writer for ESPN. He joined ESPN in 2015, writes regularly for ESPN+ and spent multiple years on "NFL Matchup." After graduating from the University of Iowa, Matt played safety in the NFL for St. Louis, Green Bay, Washington and Buffalo over seven seasons.
Pamela Maldonado
,Eric Moody
,Eric Moody
ESPN Writer
- Eric Moody is a writer for fantasy football, men's and women's basketball, and sports betting at ESPN. Eric joined ESPN in 2021 after working as a senior fantasy analyst at Pro Football Network. Prior to that, he spent much of his career as a manager at a Fortune 100 financial services company.
Ben Solak
,Ben Solak
ESPN
- Ben Solak joined ESPN in 2024 as a national NFL analyst. He previously covered the NFL at The Ringer, Bleeding Green Nation and The Draft Network.
Seth Walder
Seth Walder
ESPN Analytics
- Seth Walder is an analytics writer at ESPN, specializing in quantitative analysis. He is also a regular on "ESPN Bet Live" and helps cover sports betting. Seth has been at ESPN since 2017. He previously worked at the New York Daily News covering the Jets and Giants. You can follow Seth on X via @SethWalder.
Oct 10, 2026, 06:40 AM ET
Week 5 of the 2026 NFL season is underway after the Buccaneers defeated the Cowboys on Thursday night. But what will happen in the remaining 14 games? We have 15 predictions from our NFL experts.
First, betting analyst Pamela Maldonado picks two underdogs who could win outright. Then, analytics writer Seth Walder projects stat lines for three players. Fantasy football writer Eric Moody suggests three sleepers, and analyst Matt Bowen predicts three players who will find the end zone. Finally, analyst Ben Solak lays out four wild-card predictions.
Could the Giants pull off an upset? How many yards will Steelers running back Jaylen Warren record against the Colts? Is Cardinals quarterback Jacoby Brissett a safe starter in fantasy? And which Bears receiver will find the end zone? Let's make 15 big predictions for the Sunday and Monday action.
Jump to:
Upset picks | Projected stat lines
Fantasy sleepers, surprises
TD scorers | Other predictions
Maldonado predicts two upsets
Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 (+164 moneyline) at New England Patriots
Patriots QB Drake Maye's breakout against the Bills last week didn't solve New England's protection problems. He was still heavily pressured, while his receivers didn't create much yardage after the catch.
Meanwhile, Raiders QB Kirk Cousins has a useful answer against this defense: play-action. New England is much tougher when quarterbacks simply drop back, but it has allowed the fifth-highest QBR against play-action this season. That fits what Cousins does best, giving Las Vegas a way to manufacture enough offense to create tension.
New York Giants +3.5 (+150 moneyline) at Washington Commanders
Giants QB Jameis Winston showed against the Cardinals last week that he can find WR Malik Nabers and produce touchdowns. That ability, combined with the Commanders' poor pass defense, is what makes this a live play Sunday. Washington's blitz-happy approach only helps if it disrupts Winston before he finds those openings.
Offensively, the Commanders will return QB Jayden Daniels, but they've struggled to stay out of third-and-long. The Giants' secondary has limited passing yardage while creating interceptions this season (six, tied for the most in the NFL).
Walder predicts three stat lines
Jaylen Warren, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers: 16 carries, 104 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 reception, 19 receiving yards
Warren has been getting a heavy workload this season, and there's no reason that shouldn't continue Sunday against the Colts. Indy ranks 30th in run stop win rate and 25th in opponent EPA per designed carry. It has surrendered 4.8 yards per carry (tied for fifth most), and that number holds steady against duo runs, which the Steelers run frequently (33% of the time).
I do expect Warren's production will be more on the ground in this game than usual, however, because the Colts play a lot of man coverage, which usually discourages RB targets and receptions.
Travon Walker, Edge, Jacksonville Jaguars: 1.5 sacks, 6 pressures, 23% pass rush win rate
Since Walker typically lines up opposite the opponent's right tackle, he will be the immediate beneficiary of Lane Johnson's retirement. In Johnson's stead last week against the Rams, rookie Markel Bell recorded a pass block win rate in the 19th percentile among tackles for the week. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has taken sacks at an 8.8% clip this season, the fourth worst among qualified quarterbacks. And the Jaguars are strong favorites over the Eagles, which only increases the probability of a sack for Walker when Philly is in must-pass situations.
Greg Dulcich, TE, Miami Dolphins: 5 receptions, 64 yards, 1 touchdown
Picking a tight end to have a big day against the Bengals is almost too easy, as they've allowed a league high in yards to opposing tight ends and a massive 2.7 yards per route run. The combination of Cincinnati's linebackers struggling in coverage and its cornerbacks playing well has funneled opponent production to tight ends.
And this would qualify as a big day for Dulcich, who was shut out of the box score last week against the Vikings.
Moody predicts three fantasy sleepers
Will Shipley, RB, Philadelphia Eagles (32.3% rostered)
Shipley is on the flex radar with Saquon Barkley unlikely to play due to a hamstring injury and Tank Bigsby on injured reserve after core muscle surgery. That should put Shipley in line to lead the Eagles' backfield. He had six carries for 23 yards after Bigsby exited last week, and Shipley was already being used on passing downs.
The Jaguars have been tough against the run, so this is more about opportunity than matchup. Shipley should see enough volume to be deployed in lineups.
2:30
Why Field, Dopp are split on Shipley vs. Monangai in Week 5
Malik Washington, WR, Miami Dolphins (32.0%)
Washington has seen at least five targets in each game this season, including two with eight or more. His receiving yards have increased in each of the past three games, with 67 yards and 12.5 fantasy points against the Vikings last week.
Washington has become the favorite target for new Dolphins QB Malik Willis, especially since rookie WR Caleb Douglas has missed the past two games with an ankle injury. Washington is on the flex radar against the Bengals this week.
Jacoby Brissett, QB, Arizona Cardinals (31.5%)
Brissett has one of the best QB matchups of the week against the Lions, putting him firmly on the streaming radar. Detroit has allowed the most fantasy points per game to quarterbacks (32.7), including at least 21 fantasy points to every quarterback it has faced.
Brissett threw three interceptions against the Giants last week, but he had only one through his first three games. He has also produced 818 passing yards, six passing touchdowns and a rushing score this season.
Bowen predicts three touchdown scorers
Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
Take the matchup and the steady volume for Brown versus Arizona's defense. St. Brown has seen double-digit targets -- with at least one touchdown grab -- in three of four games. The Cardinals have given up 11 touchdown passes this season, which is tied for the most in the league.
Quinshon Judkins, RB, Cleveland Browns
Judkins has seen at least 20 touches in each of his past two games, and he caught a season-high six passes in the Week 4 win over Pittsburgh. With that level of volume, in a Todd Monken offense that will lean on the downhill run game, I like Judkins to score against the Jets on Sunday. New York gave up three rushing scores to the Bears last week.
Luther Burden III, WR, Chicago Bears
Burden has one touchdown on the season, but he has at least six targets in three straight games. He also had a rushing attempt in each of the past two games. Against Green Bay, look for coach Ben Johnson to get Burden the ball on a schemed concept in the low red zone. What could that concept be? Most likely a screen or jet sweep.
Solak makes four more predictions
The Broncos' offense will have its worst game of the season
Denver coach Sean Payton might be taking back the playcalling from Davis Webb this week, but the Chargers' defense has stiffened up over the past couple of weeks. They largely limited big plays and created takeaways against two of the league's most explosive offenses (Buffalo, Seattle). Now they get a Denver offense that's struggling less for playcalling and more for timid quarterback play. I wouldn't be surprised if some frustration boils over amid a nine-point outing.
Raiders TE Brock Bowers' Offensive Player of the Year hype will begin
The Patriots might be down both starting cornerbacks against the Raiders, as neither Carlton Davis III nor Christian Gonzalez practiced Wednesday or Thursday. Against Bowers, who lines up primarily at receiver, a depleted cornerback room is a nightmare. He has been active for only two games but is already on pace for 1,500 yards and 15 touchdowns if he misses no time down the stretch. I wouldn't be surprised to see another 100 yards and two touchdowns in this one, starting the drumbeat for seasonlong awards.
Three unsportsmanlike conduct flags will be thrown in Bears-Packers
Green Bay's players and coaching staff alike are downplaying the intensity of the rivalry game -- I don't buy it for a second. The Packers had 98% and 99% win probabilities in their past two games against the Bears but lost both. Then, coach Ben Johnson cut a promo in the locker room after bouncing them from the playoffs. Players don't forget that. I'm expecting a first-quarter fracas that generates offsetting penalties and a later call for taunting after a touchdown.
A league record will be set for drinking gesture celebrations
I don't know if ESPN Research can track this data, but now that the league is not flagging the mimed imbibing of canned beverages, expect to see several invisible cold ones downed after touchdowns this Sunday. I set the over-under at 8.5.
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