Graphs, Data, Perspectives | How India’s growth rate keeps beating forecasts
The RBI's median forecast for real GVA was close to the actual real GVA in 2016-17, despite demonetisation. (Express photo by Partha Paul)
6 min readNew DelhiOct 10, 2026 07:38 AM IST First published on: Oct 10, 2026 at 07:30 AM IST
In its latest monetary policy review concluded this week, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raised its forecast for India’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product) growth rate for the current financial year by 40 basis points to 7.1%. In other words, RBI now expects the size of India’s economy to be 7.1% more by the end of March 2027 as compared to the level reached as of March-end 2026.
At one level, this shows the Indian economy’s tremendous resilience in the face of growing geopolitical challenges and uncertainties — ranging from US-Iran war and high crude oil prices to deficient monsoon and high temperatures due to the El Niño phenomenon.
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