Odds of Democrats sweeping midterms hit 70%

Prediction-market traders are increasingly pricing in a Democratic sweep of Congress in Tuesday’s midterm elections.

Kalshi’s balance-of-power market put the chance of Democrats winning both the House and Senate at about 70% on Sunday morning, up sharply from levels seen earlier in the fall. Odds of a Democratic sweep were below 50% in early September.

The contract for Democrats taking the House while Republicans retain the Senate stood at 27%, while a Republican sweep was priced at 6.7%.

Polymarket showed a similar picture, with traders putting the odds of a Democratic sweep at 72%. A split Congress with a Republican Senate and Democratic House was priced at 23%, while a Republican sweep stood at 5%. There was a one-in-four chance of a Democratic sweep a year ago.

The two prediction markets have also moved toward Democrats in the individual chamber contracts. Kalshi traders currently put the probability of Democratic control of the Senate at roughly 72%, while its House-control market is around 94% for Democrats.

Republicans currently control both chambers, with a 53-47 edge in the Senate and a narrow House majority.

Prediction-market prices can shift rapidly as traders react to polling, campaign developments and incoming information ahead of Election Day.

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