October weather: Will South Africa be hotter and drier than usual?

October has arrived, bringing South Africa another month deeper into spring and closer to the summer season.

But South Africans may need to prepare for warmer and potentially drier conditions in the months ahead.

The South African Weather Service (SAWS) expects below to normal rainfall to be the most likely outcome across most of the country between October and December 2026.

Temperatures are also likely to climb above normal across much of South Africa during the same period.

El Niño could shape the months ahead

El Niño is expected to play an important role in South Africa’s weather during the coming summer.

The climate pattern develops when parts of the tropical Pacific Ocean become warmer than usual. These warmer waters can affect weather patterns around the world.

El Niño often brings hotter and drier summer conditions to southern Africa.

SAWS says the current El Niño is already firmly established and could strengthen further.

However, this does not mean every part of South Africa will experience dry weather throughout October or the rest of the season.

Thunderstorms, heavy rain and other severe weather can still occur even when seasonal rainfall finishes below normal.

SAWS expects warmer conditions

Higher temperatures could become another important feature of the coming months.

If the expected drier conditions develop, periods of extreme heat could become more frequent.

Authorities are therefore encouraging people to keep following shorter-term forecasts and official weather warnings as conditions develop.

Seasonal forecasts provide a broad picture of what may happen over several months, while daily forecasts give a much clearer indication of when rain, thunderstorms, heat or other weather will affect a particular area.

So, while October may signal the start of a hotter and potentially drier period, South Africans should still expect day-to-day changes as spring continues.

South Africans should keep checking daily forecasts and weather warnings because conditions can change and SAWS may update its seasonal outlook as new information becomes available.