NFL Week 5 upset alert: Why these five favorites could easily lose, including the Patriots

After accurately identifying three major upsets last week, we examine five more for Week 5

Oct 8, 2026 at 6:30 am ET • 6 min read

No favorite appears to be safe these days in the NFL, as underdogs have come on strong over the first month of the regular season. 

In the past two weeks, a total of 23 games have been decided by one score, which is tied for the most in a two-week span in NFL history. Naturally, those coin-flip games have produced quite a bit of upsets, and we've largely been on the scent with them. In last week's upset alert, we accurately identified the Texans, Lions, and Saints as favorites ripe to fall short, with the Cowboys, Panthers, and Falcons each pulling off upsets. 

Now, we turn our focus to Week 5, where there are several home underdogs, which always put our antenna up. Three of which you can find below, as they could stun the road favorites this weekend, along with two AFC East favorites possibly on shaky ground at home. 

All NFL odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Las Vegas Raiders (+3.5) at New England Patriots

• When: 1 p.m. ET | Where: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough)
• TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
• Raiders ML odds: +160

New England is coming off its biggest win of the season after going up to Buffalo and upsetting the Bills to get to 2-2 on the year. After it felt like the sky was falling in Foxborough, that win -- at least for the moment -- stabilized things. That said, this does feel like a possible letdown spot for the Patriots after such a monumental victory. They host a Raiders team that saw its undefeated 3-0 start get snapped by the Kansas City Chiefs last week, but Las Vegas largely hung in there. The defeat didn't expose them as fool's gold. Rather, I expect them to go into Gillette Stadium and make the Patriots sweat. 

Vegas ranks sixth in the NFL in pressure rate (42.5%) and fifth in sack rate (8.7%). Drake Maye was much improved against Buffalo's pressure last week, but he's still struggled overall when under duress and has had a propensity to turn the ball over. If that rears its head here, Kirk Cousins -- who is tied for the league lead in passing touchdowns (11) -- should be able to take advantage. 

Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (+3)

• When: 1 p.m. ET | Where: Lambeau Field (Green Bay)
• TV: Fox | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
• Packers ML odds: +130

I don't think it's hyperbole to call this a make-or-break game for Green Bay. A loss at home to Chicago would drop them to 2-3 on the season and, more importantly for tiebreaker situations, 0-2 in the NFC North. That's the makings of a hole that'll soon be too big to claw out of, no matter if Micah Parsons and/or Josh Jacobs return. So, with that in mind, I think the Packers -- who are admittedly flawed -- could throw the kitchen sink at a Bears team that is still dinged up. 

On top of Caleb Williams (hamstring) still being out and Tyson Bagent set to start at quarterback, Kyle Monangi (thumb) and D'Andre Swift (knee, hip) did not practice on Wednesday. They both could play in Week 5, but if they are limited in any way, that takes away/deminishes the identity of what this offense has been. Coming into Week 5, the Bears lead the NFL with 196.3 rushing yards per game. 

It's also worth noting that the Ben Johnson-led Bears have struggled against the NFC North. Against the division, Chicago is 2-5, while they are 12-2 against everyone else. 

Cleveland Browns (+2.5) at New York Jets

• When: 1 p.m. ET | Where: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford)
• TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+
• Browns ML odds: +110

What if the Browns are just good? Cleveland is coming off a marquee win over the Steelers in Week 4, and will have the rest advantage over the Jets after playing last Thursday. After a season opener where it looked like the Browns were going to sink to the bottom of the league, they've ripped off three straight, and Deshaun Watson has looked solid. In fact, he's been clutch. Over this winning streak, he's orchestrated three game-winning drives and has completed 15-of-20 passes, averaged 6.9 yards per attempt, and has two passing touchdowns with no interceptions in those drives. 

Watson and the Browns now face a Jets team that has gone in the opposite direction from them. After winning its first game of the year, New York has lost three straight. As it relates to this matchup, it's the Jets defense that should be of central focus and possibly the reason for an upset. Sure, they got an interception last week, but the unit has struggled in the two games prior to Week 5. The Jets' defense ranks last in the NFL in yards per game allowed at 436.5. Watson also won't have to deal with a ton of pressure as New York ranks 28th in the NFL in pressure rate this season. 

New York is 0-12 in its last 12 games against above-.500 teams. 

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints (+1.5)

• When: 1 p.m. ET | Where: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
• TV: Fox | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
• Saints ML odds: +105

The Saints were embarrassed on Monday night in a 45-24 loss to their division rival, the Atlanta Falcons, at home in primetime. Typically, a team playing on a short week might be at a disadvantage, but I'd guess New Orleans is foaming at the mouth to get back out there to get rid of the sour taste of that defeat. 

Minnesota is 4-0 on the year, but that undefeated record has come despite some questionable play on offense. They've registered the third-fewest yards per game (262.8) during a 4-0 start to a season by any team since 1940. Meanwhile, Kyler Murray hasn't looked like the second coming of Sam Darnold by any stretch of the imagination to this point. Of the 28 quarterbacks who've thrown at least 70 pass attempts this year, Murray is 24th in passer rating, 25th in yards per attempt, and 27th in EPA per dropback. 

Really, it's been the play of the Vikings defense that has spearheaded this undefeated start. Brian Flores' unit has allowed the fewest points per game (12.8) in the NFL this season and has by far the highest blitz rate (71%) in the league. Against the blitz this season, Saints quarterback Tyler Shough has a 105.8 passer rating (11th among QBs) and five passing touchdowns (tied for third-most in the NFL), so he has been solid in the face of added pressure. 

If he can find some success against this Vikings blitz, that could be enough to pull out the win, especially if the Murray-led offense continues to struggle to get off the ground. 

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (+5.5)

• When: 4:25 p.m. ET | Where: State Farm Stadium (Glendale)
• TV: Fox | Stream: (Fubo, try for free)
• Cardinals ML odds: +210

The Detroit Lions simply cannot be trusted as a road favorite with their current defense. They just let Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers torch them for 32 points and 329 passing yards, despite it largely just being a two-man show between Young and wideout Tetairoa McMillan (14 catches, 192 yards, and two touchdowns). Detroit's secondary is giving up a league-worst 423.8 total yards per game, and their 31.8 points per game allowed is the second-worst in the NFL. 

Lions defense this season	Stat	NFL Rank
PPG allowed	31.8	31st
YPG allowed	423.8	Last
Third down percentage	52.8%	Last

While the Cardinals won't be mistaken for a Super Bowl contender, they have enough playmakers on offense to take advantage of the Lions' poor defense. Jacoby Brissett is coming off his worst statistical game of the season, tossing three interceptions against the Giants, but he is capable of bouncing back and throwing it around the yard, especially with the likes of Trey McBride and Michael Wilson at his disposal.