More extreme heat days likely by end of century

VOLATILE WEATHER: Meteorological droughts would become more frequent and severe, while typhoons are poised to become less frequent, but more intense

• By Rachel Lin and Hollie Younger / Staff reporter, with staff writer

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Taiwan could see an additional 53 days a year of extreme heat — when temperatures reach 36°C or higher — by the end of this century, Central Weather Administration specialist Chang Wan-yu (張琬玉) said yesterday.

The estimate was based on 100 years of data, which showed that average temperatures have risen by 1.5°C and summers have become longer, she said.

Under the most severe global warming estimates, temperatures could rise by a further 3.4°C by the end of the century, meaning Taiwan could see nearly two additional months per year of extreme heat, she added.

Dancers practice at National Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hall in Taipei on May 6, 2023.

Photo: Liao Chen-huei, Taipei Times

In 2020, the Taipei weather station recorded 46 days in which temperatures surpassed 36°C, she said.

Global warming is directly impacting Taiwan’s weather systems, as the first day of temperatures dipping below 14°C and the first autumn front have steadily arrived later in the year, Chang said.

Rising temperatures also affect rainfall, with years of low rainfall becoming more frequent between 1960 and 2020, compared with before 1960, she said.

From 1990 to 2015, the maximum daily precipitation per year has become more extreme, she added.

The Oceanic Nino Index, a metric for tracking the El Nino phenomenon, has continued to rise from negative values at the start of this year to 1.8 between May and July, she said.

From June 2023 to June 2024, global temperatures rose to unprecedented levels for 13 consecutive months, with 2024 marking the hottest year since records began in 1850, Chang said.

Estimates for global temperature increases range from 1.5°C to 2°C, but a small discrepancy of 0.5°C could have a significant impact on the global climate, as it could raise the proportion of coral reefs experiencing bleaching from 70 percent to 99 percent, she said.

The extra 0.5°C could also mean that the proportion of the population exposed to extreme heat once every five years would rise from 14 percent to 37 percent, she added.

Compound climate events — such as droughts and heat waves occurring simultaneously or consecutively — could amplify their impacts, Chang said.

Meteorological droughts are poised to become more severe, frequent and widespread, while typhoons are expected to become more intense, but less frequent, she added.